Global| Jun 15 2021U.S. Retail Sales Weaken in May
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Decline follows an early-spring surge and stimulus checks. • Sales weakness is broad-based. • April & March readings were upwardly revised. Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments declined 1.3% during [...]
• Decline follows an early-spring surge and stimulus checks.
• Sales weakness is broad-based.
• April & March readings were upwardly revised.
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments declined 1.3% during May (+28.1% y/y). A 0.6% May decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. May's reading followed a 0.9% April increase, revised from no change. An 11.3% March increase also was revised upward from 10.7%. Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts fell 0.7% last month (+26.4% y/y) after little change during April, revised from -0.8%. The 9.8% March increase ex-auto was revised from 9.0%. A 0.5% rise during last month had been expected.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, gas stations, building materials and food services, declined 0.7% last month (+18.8% y/y) after easing 0.4% in April.
Motor vehicle purchases weakened 3.7% in May (+34.8% y/y) and reversed a 4.3% April rise. The decline compares to a 7.8% drop (+41.5% y/y) in unit sales of light vehicles. Spending at electronics & appliance stores fell 3.4% (+91.3% y/y) after rising 1.5% during April. Sales at general merchandise stores weakened 3.3% (+10.3% y/y) after falling 2.2% in April. Within that group, department store sales improved 1.6% (28.0% y/y) after a 0.6% decline. Furniture & home furnishing store sales weakened 2.1% (+66.6% y/y) following a 0.7% improvement. Nonstore retail sales edged down 0.8% in May (+7.9% y/y) after April's 0.3% easing. Sporting goods, hobby and book store sales fell 0.8% (+44.1% y/y) after weakening 2.3%. To the upside, spending at clothing & accessory stores rose 3.0% (+200.3% y/y) after falling 2.0% in April.
Building materials sales fell 5.9% (+10.5% y/y), the third sharp decline in the last four months. Gasoline service station sales rose 0.7% (57.0% y/y) after falling 1.1% in April. The gain reflected a 3.8% rise in gasoline prices (seasonally adjusted by Haver).
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, grocery & beverage store sales improved 1.0% in May (0.7% y/y) after rising 0.7% in the prior month. Health & personal care store sales rose 1.8% (25.6% y/y) following two months of strong increase.
Sales at restaurants and drinking establishments strengthened 1.8% (70.6% y/y) in May, the fourth month of strong increase in the last five.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -1.3 | 0.9 | 11.3 | 28.1 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 4.4 |
| Excluding Autos | -0.7 | -0.0 | 9.8 | 26.4 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 5.1 |
| Retail Sales | -1.7 | 0.5 | 11.0 | 24.4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 4.2 |
| Retail Less Autos | -1.0 | -0.7 | 9.2 | 21.3 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | -3.7 | 4.3 | 17.0 | 34.8 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| Food & Beverage Stores | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 11.5 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Gasoline Service Stations | 0.7 | -1.1 | 10.1 | 57.0 | -15.8 | -1.7 | 9.2 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places | 1.8 | 4.5 | 13.9 | 70.6 | -19.4 | 5.6 | 5.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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