Global| Sep 12 2008U.S. Retail Sales Weak: A Broad-Based Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Commerce Department reported that August retail sales fell 0.3%. The decline followed a revised 0.5% July drop that was deeper than reported initially. The June sales figures also were revised weaker. On a three-month basis [...]
The Commerce Department reported that August retail sales fell 0.3%. The decline followed a revised 0.5% July drop that was deeper than reported initially. The June sales figures also were revised weaker. On a three-month basis overall retail sales fell 1.7% (AR) and that was down from last year's 4.1% increase. The August decline compared to a Consensus expectation for a 0.3% increase.
Lower gasoline prices played a roll in the decline in last month's sales figure. Sales at gasoline service stations fell 2.5% (+22.5% y/y). That followed a 0.2% uptick in July as well as gains of 4.0% and 3.3% during the prior two months.
To an extent, gasoline sales' weakness was offset by a 1.9% increase in sales of motor vehicles & parts. That recovered nearly half of the July shortfall but sales remained down 13.5% y/y. Sales fell at an 18.8% annual rate during the last three months.
Retail sales excluding autos fell 0.7% in August, a decline deeper than Consensus expectations of a 0.2% shortfall.
Sales excluding gasoline & autos also were down. The 0.4% (+3.2% y/y) drop reversed all of the July increase. It also weakened growth on a three-month basis to a 1.0% annual rate. That represents sharp deceleration from the six-to-ten percent growth in place since April.
Sales offurniture, home furnishings & appliances fell for the third straight month, down by 0.7% (-2.9% y/y). Sales of electronics & appliances fell 1.3% (+1.2% y/y). Sales of furniture & home furnishings stabilized a bit and they were unchanged m/m (-6.8% y/y). Apparel store sales also were weak and the 0.3% (+1.2% y/y) decline reversed the July increase. General merchandise store sales also fell. The 0.2% dip reversed a modest July gain and it reduced the three-month growth rate to 1.8% from 10%+ just a few months ago.
Sales of building materials and garden equipment added to the weakness as they fell 2.2% (-2.7% y/y).
Purchases made from home also were quite weak. Sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) dropped 2.3% (+6.1% y/y) and that followed a rise of just 0.8% during July. Three-month growth in these sales fell to -3.9% (AR).
Yesterday's comments by Fed Vice ChairmanDonald L. Kohn at the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, Washington, D.C. can be found here.
| August | July | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services (%) | -0.3 | -0.5 | 1.6 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 6.4 |
| Excluding Autos | -0.7 | 0.3 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 7.5 |
| Less Gasoline | -0.4 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 6.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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