Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Feb 13 2013

U.S. Retail Sales Tick Higher

Summary

. January retail sales ticked up a minimal 0.1% following an unrevised 0.5% December increase. November's increase was raised to 0.5% from 0.4%. The latest uptick matched expectations, according to Action Economics. Retail sales [...]

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Growth in consumer spending throttled back last month following a firm ending to last year. January retail sales ticked up a minimal 0.1% following an unrevised  0.5% December increase. November's increase was raised to 0.5% from 0.4%. The latest uptick matched expectations, according to Action Economics. Retail sales excluding autos rose 0.2% after an unrevised 0.3% December gain. A 0.1% rise was expected.

On the firmer side were sales at general merchandise stores which increased 1.1% (-1.0% y/y), although that followed four consecutive months of decline. Sales at nonstore retailers gained 0.9% (15.7% y/y), the third consecutive month of strong increase. Gasoline service station sales rose 0.2% (0.8% y/y). Also rising were electronics and appliance store sales, up 0.2% (1.3% y/y). Finally, sales of building materials gained 0.3% (2.0% y/y) for the second consecutive month. To the weak side, prior strength in motor vehicle purchases evaporated last month and they fell 0.1% (+8.0% y/y). That followed strong increases in four of the prior five months. Sales of furniture & home furnishings were similarly weak and they fell 0.2% (+3.2% y/y). Apparel store sales fell 0.3% (+4.4% y/y). Food & beverage store sales slipped marginally (+2.8% y/y ) and restaurant & food service sales also were down a bit (+6.5% y/y). 

The retail sales figure are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.

Retail Spending (%) Jan Dec Nov Jan Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
Total Retail Sales & Food Services 0.1 0.5 0.5 4.4 5.0 8.0 5.5
  Excluding Autos 0.2 0.3 0.0 3.6 4.5 7.4 4.5
Retail Sales 0.1 0.4 0.4 4.1 4.8 8.3 5.8
  Motor Vehicle & Parts -0.1 1.2 2.7 8.0 7.6 10.8 10.8
 Retail excluding Autos 0.2 0.2 -0.2 3.1 4.1 7.6 4.7
  Gasoline Stations 0.2 -1.7 -4.5 0.8 3.7 17.8 14.7
 Non-Auto Less Gasoline 0.2 0.5 0.7 3.6 4.1 5.9 3.2
Food Service Sales -0.0 1.4 1.2 6.5 7.1 5.9 3.2

U.S. Import and Export Prices Rebound
by Tom Moeller  February 13, 2013

U.S. prices in the foreign trade sector recovered last month following December weakness. Import prices increased 0.6% (-1.3% y/y) after a 0.5% December decline, originally reported as -0.1%. The Action Economics survey looked for prices to rise 0.8%. Petroleum prices led last month's price improvement with a 2.9% recovery (-5.9% y/y) after three months of decline.

Nonpetroleum import prices ticked up 0.1% and were 0.2% higher y/y. Capital goods prices outside of the high-tech area nudged up 0.1% (0.4% y/y) while computers, peripheral & semiconductor costs remained unchanged (-2.2% y/y). Foods, feeds & beverages prices increased 0.5% (-3.6% y/y) while prices for nonauto consumer goods prices gained 0.1% (0.2% y/y). Automotive vehicle costs also ticked up 0.1% (1.5% y/y) but nonoil industrial supplies & material prices were 0.1% lower (+1.3% y/y).

U.S. export prices gained an expected 0.3% (1.1% y/y) in January. Prices were led higher by a 0.8% rise (1.0% y/y) in capital goods prices while motor vehicle & parts prices rose 0.3% (1.0% y/y). These gains were offset by nonauto consumer goods prices which were unchanged (-0.1% y/y). Agricultural product prices fell 1.3% (10.7% y/y).

The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database. 

Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) Jan Dec Nov Jan Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
Imports - All Commodities 0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -1.3 0.3 10.9 6.9
  Petroleum 2.9 -2.7 -2.9 -5.9 -0.3 36.5 28.4
  Nonpetroleum 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.3 4.5 2.8
Exports - All Commodities 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 1.1 0.4 8.1 4.9
  Agricultural -1.3 0.2 0.5 10.7 2.4 22.3 7.9
  Nonagricultural 0.5 -0.2 -0.7 0.0 0.1 6.6 4.6
 

 

U.S. Mortgage Applications Slide As Interest Rates Remain At Higher Level
by Tom Moeller  February 13, 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association index of total mortgage applications fell 6.4% (-0.7% y/y) last week to the lowest level in five weeks. Home purchase applications fell 9.5% (17.3% y/y) while applications to refinance an existing loan were off 5.5% (-4.9% y/y).

Applications for fixed interest rate loans inched up 0.8% y/y while adjustable rate loan applications fell by more than one-quarter y/y. The average mortgage loan size recovered to $209,800. The average size for home purchases was $253,600 last week while for refinancings it was $197,400. The average size of a fixed rate loan was $195,000 last week and for variable rate loans it was $565,000. 

The effective rate on fixed-interest, conventional 15-year mortgages remained unchanged at 3.08% and rates were up from December's weekly low of 2.89%. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed rate was roughly unchanged at 3.87% last week while the rate on a Jumbo 30-year loan was 4.08%. Though it's recently narrowed, the spread between 15- and 30-year loan rates continued wide by historical standards. The effective interest rate on an adjustable 5-year mortgage slipped to 2.77%.

The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of all U.S. residential mortgage applications processed each week by mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts. The figures for weekly mortgage applications are available in Haver's SURVEYW database. 

MBA Mortgage Applications (SA, 3/16/90=100) 02/08/13 02/01/13 01/25/13 Y/Y% 2012 2011 2010
Total Market Index 795.8 849.8 822.1 -0.7 813.8 572.3 659.3
 Purchase 195.4 215.8 211.1 17.3 187.8 182.6 199.8
 Refinancing 4,315.8 4,567.6 4,415.2 -4.9 4,505.0 2,858.4 3,348.1
15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) 3.08 3.08 3.05 3.45
(2/12)
3.25 3.97 4.39

U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Rate Moderates
by Tom Moeller  February 13, 2013

Inventories are not sitting for long on businesses' shelves. Business inventories rose 0.1% (5.5% y/y) during December following a downwardly revised 0.2% November increase. That was the slowest monthly rise in six months. It lowered the gain for all of last year to 5.1%, the slowest increase of the economic recovery. Overall, the inventory-to-sales ratio has fluctuated around 1.27 for three years.  

Merchant wholesalers have been in forefront of the effort to keep inventories low. The 5.5% rate of increase last year was roughly half that of the prior two years. The restraint is seen in both durable and nondurable goods. That was enough to leave the inventory-to-sales ratio at 1.19, about what it averaged in 2010. Factory sector inventory accumulation also has been muted. Last year's 2.4% growth compared to 9.4% in 2011. It left the inventory-to-sales ratio at a stable 1.27.

In the retail sector, inventories were firm and gained 8.0% during all of last year. Motor vehicle inventories led the growth and increased 20.5% y/y. Excluding autos, however, inventories rose a moderate 3.2% y/y. Clothing stores raised inventory levels by 5.9% in 2012, down from the 7.6% rise in 2011. Inventories of furniture rose 3.9% y/y making up for decumulation in 2011. At general merchandise stores, inventories rose just 2.2% y/y, half the 2011 rate of gain. The rate of inventory growth at food & beverage stores also slowed to 2.6%, half the growth in 2011. Still in an aggressive mode was inventory accumulation of building materials, up 4.4% last year after a 0.9% rise in 2011. The retail inventory-to-sales ratio of 1.38 is up slightly from its low.

Business sales rose 0.3% in December, 4.3% y/y. Wholesale sales were unchanged (4.8% y/y) but that was down sharply from gains during the prior two years. Factory shipments gained 0.4% (3.0% y/y) following two months of 0.3% rise. As reported earlier, retail sales rose 0.4% (4.4% y/y) for the second month. Excluding autos, sales gained  0.2% (3.7% y/y) and made up for the November decline.

The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database. 

Business Inventories(%)

Dec Nov Oct Dec Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
Total 0.1 0.2 0.3 5.1 5.1 7.7 8.3
 Retail 0.5 0.3 0.6 8.0 8.0 3.7 6.1
  Retail excl. Motor Vehicles 0.3 0.3 0.4 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.9
 Merchant Wholesalers -0.1 0.4 0.3 5.5 5.5 9.9 10.1
 Manufacturing 0.1 -0.0 -0.0 2.4 2.4 9.4 8.8
Business Sales (%)
Total 0.3 0.9 -0.3 3.6 4.5 11.3 9.7
 Retail 0.4 0.4 -0.2 4.4 4.8 8.3 5.8
  Retail excl. Motor Vehicles 0.2 -0.2 0.1 3.7 4.1 7.6 4.7
 Merchant Wholesalers 0.0 2.2 -0.9 3.7 4.8 13.5 11.6
 Manufacturing 0.4 0.3 0.3 3.0 4.1 11.8 11.2
I/S Ratio
Total 1.27 1.28 1.28 1.26 1.27 1.26 1.27
 Retail 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.33 1.36 1.34 1.38
  Retail Excl. Motor Vehicles 1.20 1.19 1.19 1.20 1.20 1.21 1.24
 Merchant Wholesalers 1.19 1.19 1.21 1.17 1.19 1.16 1.18
 Manufacturing 1.27 1.27 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.27 1.28
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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