Global| Jul 15 2008U.S. Retail Sales Rose Just Slightly in June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
U.S. retail sales during June inched up just 0.1% after having risen a downwardly revised 0.8% in May. On a three-month basis overall retail sales rose at a 4.5% annual rate. The latest rise fell short of Consensus expectations for a [...]
U.S. retail sales during June inched up just 0.1% after having risen a downwardly revised 0.8% in May. On a three-month basis overall retail sales rose at a 4.5% annual rate. The latest rise fell short of Consensus expectations for a 0.4% increase.
Sales of motor vehicles & parts fell another 3.6% (-10.5% y/y) and they are down at a 27.0% annual rate during the last three months. The decline accompanied a 4.6% (-13.1% y/y) drop in unit motor vehicle sales last month.
Retail sales excluding autos rose 0.8% and the strong 1.2% rise in May was unrevised, boosted recently by receipts of the government's tax rebate checks. The latest increase was double Consensus expectations for a 0.4% rise, but a 4.6% (24.5% y/y) increase in sales at gasoline service stations accounted for much of the strength.
Less gasoline & autos retail sales inched up just 0.2% (3.6% y/y) which was the weakest increase since February. Nevertheless, on a three-month basis these sales still were strong and surged at an 8.8% annual rate during the last three months.
Folks attempted to avoid the higher gas prices by purchasing online. June sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) rose 0.8% (8.1% y/y) following downwardly revised, but still strong, gains which exceeded 1.0% during the prior three months.
Sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.4% (5.6% y/y) following the 1.3% pop in May. Sales offurniture, home furnishings & appliance, however, reversed all of the upwardly revised May surge of 1.0% (-0.1% y/y). Sales of furniture & home furnishings declined 1.4% (-5.4% y/y). Apparel store sales rose 0.6% (2.9% y/y), about the same as they did during the prior three months.
Building materials & garden equipment sales fell 0.9% (+1.5%% y/y) after gains which exceeded 2.0% during the prior two months.
Released yesterday, the Federal Reserve Board's final rule for home mortgage loans to better protect consumers and facilitate responsible lending can be found here.
Doom & Gloom in the Housing Markets: The Sequel from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| June | May | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.1% | 0.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% |
| Excluding Autos | 0.8% | 1.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% |
| Less Gasoline | 0.2% | 0.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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