Global| Jan 14 2014U.S. Retail Sales Post Moderate Year-End Increase
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Retail spending increased 0.2% (4.1% y/y) during December after a 0.4% November gain, revised down from 0.7%. The latest increase matched expectations in the Action Economics survey. For all of last year retail sales increased 4.3%, [...]
Retail spending increased 0.2% (4.1% y/y) during December after a 0.4% November gain, revised down from 0.7%. The latest increase matched expectations in the Action Economics survey. For all of last year retail sales increased 4.3%, the weakest increase of the economic recovery. A 1.8% reduction (+5.9% y/y) in sales of motor vehicles & parts held back the increase in overall December sales. Nonauto retail sales rose 0.7% (3.7% y/y) after a 0.1% November uptick. A 0.4% increase had been expected. Nonauto sales rose 3.4% during all of 2013, also the weakest gain of the recovery.
Higher sales of food & beverages led last month's sales with a 2.0% gain (4.2% y/y) following two months of slippage. Clothing & accessory sales increased 1.8% (5.2% y/y) after a 0.5% November dip and gasoline service station sales rose 1.6% (0.6% y/y), after two months of decline. Sales of nonstore retailers showed continued strength with a 1.4% jump (9.9% y/y) following a 1.6% November gain. Consumers remained inclined to eat out as food service sales rose 0.5% (4.6% y/y) following two months of even stronger increase. General merchandise store sales ticked up 0.1% (1.5% y/y) for the second consecutive month.
To the downside, electronics & appliance store sales plunged 2.5% (-1.4% y/y) following a like falloff in November. Furniture store sales dropped 0.4% (+4.5% y/y) after a 0.2% decline and building materials & garden equipment store sales slipped 0.4% (+2.1% y/y), down for the third month in the last five.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Employee Compensation Costs During the Recovery from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is available here.
| Retail Spending (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 7.5 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 7.0 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline & Building Supplies | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 5.4 |
| Retail Sales | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 7.7 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | -1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 10.1 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.8 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 7.1 |
| Gasoline Stations | 1.6 | -1.5 | -0.3 | 0.6 | -0.7 | 4.1 | 18.4 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 6.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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