Global| Jun 14 2004U.S. Retail Sales Lifted By Autos & Gasoline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Retail sales jumped 1.2% last month following the little revised 0.6% decline in April. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.1% rise. Motor vehicle dealers' sales surged 5.9% as unit sales of light vehicles rose 8.7% to 17.84M. [...]
Retail sales jumped 1.2% last month following the little revised 0.6% decline in April. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.1% rise.
Motor vehicle dealers' sales surged 5.9% as unit sales of light vehicles rose 8.7% to 17.84M.
Sales at gasoline service stations jumped 4.0% (22.5% y/y). Average gasoline prices rose 10.3% m/m in May to $1.98/gal.
Excluding motor vehicles & parts dealers, the 0.7% m/m gain in retail sales about equaled Consensus expectations. Less gasoline, however, nonauto sales rose just 0.3% (8.6% y/y) following a 0.1% dip in April.
The slowdown in sales was dominated by lower sales at food services & drinking places (-0.3%) and a 1.4% decline in building materials. Sales at general merchandise stores recovered 1.3% (+8.4% y/y) versus a 0.7% April decline. Clothing and accessory store sales rose 0.9% (+6.7% y/y) following a 2.3% April slump.Sales of furniture/home furnishings & electronics/appliances dipped 0.3% (+8.1% y/y) after a 0.7% April rise.
| May | April | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | 1.2% | -0.6% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% |
| Excluding Autos | 0.7% | -0.1% | 9.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% |
by Tom Moeller June 14, 2004
The U.S. foreign trade deficit deepened to another record in April of $48.33B versus the revised deficit of $46.57B a month earlier. Consensus expectations had been for a deficit of $45.0B.
Total imports rose a modest 0.2% in April following the downwardly revised 3.1% jump in March. The moderation was due to a m/m decline in the quantity of oil imports. The value of petroleum products imports fell 10.2% (+18.0% y/y).
Imports of non-petroleum goods rose 1.7% (14.6% y/y), the third strong monthly gain. Imports of capital goods rose 1.9% (14.0% y/y) following a 3.6% March increase. A 1.6% (15.1% y/y) rise in imports of non-auto consumer goods followed the 8.1% March jump.
Exports fell 1.5% following two months of strong gain and reflected dips across the board.
By country, the US trade deficit with China deepened sharply m/m to $12.0B ($124.1B in 2003). Exports fell 19.4% m/m (+28.1% y/y). The US trade deficit with Japan eased to $6.4B ($66.0B in 2003) and the deficit with the European Union eased to $9.2B ($93.1B in 2003).
"Globalization: Threat or Opportunity for the U.S. Economy" from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Foreign Trade | April | Mar | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Deficit | $48.3B | $46.6B | $42.5B(4/03) | $496.5B | $421.7B | $362.7B |
| Exports - Goods & Services | -1.5% | 3.1% | 15.5% | 4.6% | -3.1% | -6.0% |
| Imports - Goods & Services | 0.2% | 3.1% | 14.9% | 8.5% | 2.1% | -5.5% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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