Global| Apr 14 2014U.S. Retail Sales Improvement Picks Up Momentum
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Retail sales gained 1.1% last month (3.8% y/y) following a 0.7% February increase, revised from 0.3%. The gain was the largest since September 2012 and roughly matched the 0.8% rise expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A [...]
Retail sales gained 1.1% last month (3.8% y/y) following a 0.7% February increase, revised from 0.3%. The gain was the largest since September 2012 and roughly matched the 0.8% rise expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 3.1% jump (9.1% y/y) in sales of motor vehicles & parts, following February's 2.5% increase, powered last month's spending rise. Nonauto retail sales improved 0.7% (2.6% y/y) after an unrevised 0.3% February gain. A 0.4% increase had been expected.
In the discretionary spending categories, general merchandise store sales jumped 1.9% (1.9% y/y) following a 0.1% slip and purchases of building materials & garden equipment increased 1.8% (5.7% y/y) after a 0.6% decline. Remaining firm were sales of nonstore retailers which improved 1.7% (7.8% y/y) after a similar increase in February. Restaurant sales increased 1.1% (4.1% y/y) after a 0.7% rise. Also strong were sales at apparel & accessory stores, up 1.0% (2.1% y/y) after a 0.4% decline while sales at sporting goods stores improved 0.3% (-2.0% y/y) after a 2.3% jump. Offsetting these gains were purchases at furniture & home furnishings stores which fell 0.3% (+0.7% y/y) after a 0.7% rise. Sales at electronics & appliance stores also were off 1.6% (-0.7% y/y) following a 0.4% gain.
Nondiscretionary purchases gained modestly. Sales at food & beverage stores rose 0.2% (3.0% y/y) and recovered the prior month's decline. Sales at health & personal care stores increased 0.3% (5.2% y/y), the same as in February. Gasoline service station sales declined 1.3% (-3.3% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 1.1 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 7.5 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 7.0 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline & Building Supplies | 0.9 | 0.5 | -0.6 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 5.5 |
| Retail Sales | 1.1 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 7.7 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 3.1 | 2.5 | -2.4 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 10.1 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.6 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 7.1 |
| Gasoline Stations | -1.3 | 0.1 | 0.8 | -3.3 | -0.7 | 4.1 | 18.4 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 1.1 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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