Global| Nov 14 2007U.S. Retail Sales About As Expected
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
U.S. retail sales last month rose 0.2% after the 0.7% September increase which revised up slightly. The gain matched expectations and the prior month's 0.7% was revised up slightly. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.2% and the prior [...]
U.S. retail sales last month rose 0.2% after the 0.7% September increase which revised up slightly. The gain matched expectations and the prior month's 0.7% was revised up slightly.
Excluding autos, sales rose 0.2% and the prior month's gain of 0.4% was revised down slightly to 0.3%. A 0.3% October increase had been expected.Nonauto retail sales less gasoline ticked up just 0.1% (3.9% y/y) after an unrevised 0.2% rise in September. The 0.1% decline during August was revised down to a 0.5% drop.
Sales of discretionary items were generally weak last month. Furniture, home furnishings & appliance stores sales fell 0.4% (0.8% y/y) and the prior month's gain was revised down to a 0.8% decline. Sales have declined in four of the last five months. Sales at general merchandise stores fell 0.1% (+3.6 y/y). Apparel store sales rose 0.1% (4.4% y/y) but the prior month's decline was revised up to a 0.1% increase.
Building material sales rose a firm 0.6% (1.3% y/y) though the prior month's gain of 0.8% was revised down to a 0.4% decline.
Sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) fell 1.0% (5.9% y/y) after a little revised 0.9% September increase.
Motor vehicle & parts purchases rose 0.2% (5.0% y/y) but unit sales of light vehicles fell 1.1% m/m in October.
Gasoline service station sales rose 0.8% after the 1.8% September gain. Higher gas prices should lift this month's increase.
The recent Treasury Dept. study of Income Mobility is available here.
| October | September | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.2% | 0.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% |
| Excluding Autos | 0.2% | 0.3% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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