
U.S. Producer Prices Fall Sharply; Core Prices Ease
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.6% (+1.3% y/y) during February following a 0.5% January rise. It was the largest m/m weakening since January 2015. A 0.1% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast [...]
The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.6% (+1.3% y/y) during February following a 0.5% January rise. It was the largest m/m weakening since January 2015. A 0.1% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Producer prices excluding food & energy were off 0.3% (+1.4% y/y) following a 0.5% gain. A 0.1% rise had been expected. The PPI excluding food, beverages and trade services, another measure of underlying price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+1.4% y/y) after rising 0.4% in January. It was the first monthly shortfall in three months.
Final demand goods prices less food & energy eased 0.1% (+0.5% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. The cost of finished consumer goods less food & energy held steady (1.2% y/y) for a second straight month. Core nondurable goods prices edged 0.2% higher (1.9% y/y) and durable product prices eased 0.3%, but were unchanged y/y. Private capital equipment prices also held steady (1.0% y/y) following three straight 0.1% increases.
A 0.3% decline (+1.5% y/y) in services prices for final demand followed a 0.7% increase. Trade services prices fell 0.7% (+1.3% y/y), as the cost of trade of finished goods fell 0.9%. A 0.6% decline in transportation & warehousing prices was the third decline in four months. Excluding these costs, prices eased 0.1% (+1.8% y/y) after improving 0.6%.
Food prices weakened 1.6% (+1.1% y/y) following a 0.2% rise. Final demand energy prices fell 3.6% (+0.2% y/y) as gasoline prices were off 6.5% (+9.8% y/y).
The cost of construction slipped 0.1% (+3.8% y/y) following a 0.8% rise.
Intermediate product prices fell 0.9% (-2.1% y/y) after declining 0.3%.
The PPI data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Further detail can be found in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figures are available in the AS1REPNA database.
Producer Price Index (SA, %) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Final Demand | -0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.3 |
Excluding Food & Energy | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.9 |
Excluding Food, Energy & Trade Services | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
Goods | -0.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
Foods | -1.6 | 0.2 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
Energy | -3.6 | -0.7 | 1.5 | 0.2 | -4.4 | 10.1 | 10.6 |
Goods Excluding Food & Energy | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
Services | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.8 |
Trade Services | -0.7 | 1.2 | -0.3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
Construction | -0.1 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 |
Intermediate Demand - Processed Goods | -0.9 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -2.1 | -1.4 | 5.4 | 4.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.