Global| Jan 15 2014U.S. Producer Price Index Rebounds
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Price inflation recovered at the end of last year. The Producer Price Index for finished goods increased 0.4% (1.2% y/y) following unrevised declines of 0.1% and 0.2% during the prior two months. The latest gain matched expectations [...]
Price inflation recovered at the end of last year. The Producer Price Index for finished goods increased 0.4% (1.2% y/y) following unrevised declines of 0.1% and 0.2% during the prior two months. The latest gain matched expectations in the Action Economics survey. Prices excluding food & energy increased 0.3% in December (1.4% y/y) following gains of 0.1% and 0.2% during the two prior months. A 0.1% uptick was expected.
A 1.6% increase (1.3% y/y) in energy prices was driven by a 6.4% rebound (3.9% y/y) in home heating oil prices. Gasoline prices recovered 2.2% (-1.0% y/y) following three consecutive months of decline. Residential electric power costs again increased 0.2% (2.1% y/y) while natural gas prices also improved by 0.2% (3.9% y/y).
Food prices fell 0.6% (+0.6% y/y). Beef & veal prices fell 1.8% (-1.7% y/y) and pork prices were off 3.5% (+4.1% y/y). These declines were countered by a 9.9% rise (17.7% y/y) in fresh egg costs though processed fruit & vegetable prices were unchanged (0.9% y/y).
Finished consumer goods prices excluding food & energy jumped 0.4% (1.8% y/y) following four consecutive months of being unchanged. Consumer durable goods prices ticked up 0.1% for a third straight month (0.7% y/y) as passenger car prices improved by 0.2% (-0.5% y/y). Household appliance prices gained 0.5% (-0.9% y/y). Core consumer nondurable goods prices increased 0.7% (2.6% y/y). Capital equipment prices nudged up 0.1% for a third straight month (1.0% y/y).
Intermediate goods prices rebounded 0.6% but were unchanged y/y. Energy costs jumped 1.9% (-1.3 y/y) while intermediate food prices improved by 0.4% (-3.2% y/y). Prices excluding food & energy again improved 0.2% (0.8% y/y). Crude goods prices jumped 2.4% (-2.2% y/y) led by a 6.2% recovery (4.4% y/y) in energy prices. Crude food prices again fell 0.3% (-6.4% y/y). Crude goods prices excluding food & energy improved 0.6% (-5.9% y/y).
The PPI data are contained in Haver's USECON database with further detail in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figures are available in the AS1REPNA database.
| Producer Price Index (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 6.0 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| Foods | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 6.3 |
| Energy | 1.6 | -0.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 15.7 |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.6 | -0.5 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 8.9 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 6.2 |
| Crude Goods | 2.4 | -2.6 | -0.9 | -2.2 | 2.1 | -3.2 | 17.5 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.6 | 1.4 | -0.5 | -5.9 | -5.0 | -5.3 | 18.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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