U.S. Personal Spending and Income Rise; Price Increase Strongest Y/Y Since 2012

Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% (5.2% y/y) in July, the same as during June which was unrevised. A 0.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Personal income improved an expected 0.3% (4.7% y/y) following an unrevised 0.4% gain.

In constant dollars, personal spending increased 0.2% (2.8% y/y), the weakest increase in four months. Real durable goods spending fell 0.5% (+4.8% y/y), the first decline since February. A 1.3% shortfall (+0.1% y/y) in constant dollar purchases of motor vehicles & parts was the third consecutive decline. It added to a 0.3% fall (+6.1% y/y) in real spending on furniture & and appliances which came after two months of firm increase. Recreational goods & vehicles purchases rose 0.3% in real terms (8.9% y/y) following a 0.6% gain. Real outlays on nondurable goods strengthened 0.6% last month (3.2% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. Constant dollar clothing & footwear purchases jumped 1.5% (4.6% y/y) after a 0.5% decline, while the volume of gasoline & oil buying gained 0.4% (-0.1% y/y) following a 1.1% decline. Constant dollar spending on food & beverages rebounded 0.3% (3.8% y/y) following a 0.2% drop. Real services spending improved 0.2% (2.4% y/y) for the second month in the last three. Outlays at restaurants & hotels strengthened 0.9% in constant dollars (4.9% y/y), the third month of strong gain. Real health care outlays improved 0.3% (2.5% y/y) for the second straight month and constant dollar outlays on housing & utilities gained 0.2% (1.5% y/y) for the second straight month. Real financial services spending held steady (0.6% y/y) after three months of firm increase. Spending on recreation services was off 0.4% (+0.3% y/y) in real terms after a 0.6% rise.

The 0.3% increase in personal income reflected a 0.4% rise (4.7% y/y) in wages & salaries. It was the fourth such gain in the last five months. Rental income strengthened 0.7% (4.6% y/y), the strongest gain in four months. Proprietors income, however, eased slightly (+5.7% y/y) after a 0.6% rise. Dividend payments strengthened 0.6% (3.9% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. Interest income edged 0.1% higher (8.3% y/y) following three consecutive 0.3% gains. Transfer receipts increased 0.3% (4.1% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Social security payments improved 0.3% (5.1% y/y) after rising 0.4%. Medicare payments rose 0.7% (5.3% y/y) following two 0.6% gains but Medicaid payments fell 0.4% (+3.2% y/y) following stability in July. Unemployment insurance payments gained 0.8% (-13.4% y/y) after no change while veterans benefits surged 3.8% (10.6% y/y) after two months of decline.

Disposable personal income increased 0.3% (5.3% y/y) after gaining 0.4% in three of the prior four months. Real disposable income improved 0.2% (2.9% y/y) after a 0.3% rise.

The personal savings rate was fairly stable at 6.7%, but that was down from 7.2% in March. Personal saving increased 5.5% y/y.

The chain type price index inched 0.1% higher for a second straight month. The 2.3% y/y increase was the strongest, however, since March 2012. The index excluding food & energy rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y) as it has for most of this year. Energy prices declined 0.5% (+13.4% y/y) following a 0.2% fall. Food prices inched 0.1% higher (0.5% y/y) after a 0.2% rise.

The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is in the AS1REPNA database.