Global| Apr 28 2014U.S. Pending Home Sales Rebound With Improved Weather
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Following eight straight months of decline, pending sales of single-family homes improved 3.4% during March, according the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The 0.5% February decline was revised from a 0.8% shortfall reported [...]
Following eight straight months of decline, pending sales of single-family homes improved 3.4% during March, according the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The 0.5% February decline was revised from a 0.8% shortfall reported last month. Despite the increase, sales remained 12.1% below the peak last June. Expectations had been for a 1.0% rise, according to Bloomberg.
Home sales improved across most of the country last month. In the West, sales gained 5.7% (-11.1% y/y) following a 2.3% February rise. Nevertheless, sales remained down 20.8% during the last nine months. Home purchases in the South improved 5.6% (-5.3% y/y), a gain that made up three months of decline. Sales were 5.2% below the peak nine months ago. Purchases in the Northeast improved 1.4% (-5.9% y/y) and made up February's shortfall. Sales still were off by 12.5% since the peak in April of last year. In the Midwest, home buying slipped 0.8% (-10.1% y/y), the eighth decline in the last nine months. Sales were off 16.2% since the May peak.
The pending home sales figures are analogous to the new home sales data from the Commerce Department. They measure home sales when the sales contract is signed, not at the time the sale is closed. In developing the model for the index, the NAR demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001 and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database.
The Effect of Large Investors on Asset Quality: Evidence from Subprime Mortgage Securities from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta can be found here.
| Pending Home Sales (%, SA) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 3.4 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -7.9 | 4.5 | 11.3 | 1.3 |
| Northeast | 1.4 | -1.6 | 2.3 | -5.9 | 6.1 | 16.6 | -4.0 |
| Midwest | -0.8 | 2.8 | -2.7 | -10.1 | 10.4 | 17.7 | 2.2 |
| South | 5.6 | -3.6 | 3.1 | -5.3 | 5.4 | 12.7 | 1.4 |
| West | 5.7 | 2.3 | -4.8 | -11.1 | -3.6 | 1.2 | 3.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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