Global| Jan 31 2018U.S. Pending Home Sales Increase
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales increased 0.5% (0.5% y/y) during December to an index level of 110.1 (2001=100). This followed a 0.5% November increase, moving the index to the highest level [...]
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales increased 0.5% (0.5% y/y) during December to an index level of 110.1 (2001=100). This followed a 0.5% November increase, moving the index to the highest level in nine months. Nevertheless, sales remained 3.1% below their recent peak in April 2016.
Sales changes were mixed by region. Sales in the South increased 2.6% (4.0% y/y) to the highest level since March. In the West, sales gained 1.5% (-3.1% y/y), but have trended sideways for six months. To the downside were sales in the Northeast which posted a 5.1% decline (-2.7% y/y), and remained 8.0% below the February peak. Sales in the Midwest eased 0.3% (+0.3% y/y) and also have trended erratically sideways since the middle of 2016.
The pending home sales index measures home sales when the sales contract is signed, analogous to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity parallels the level of closed existing home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001, and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database.
| Pending Home Sales (SA, 2001=100) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 110.1 | 109.6 | 109.3 | 0.5 | 109.0 | 109.8 | 108.8 |
| Northeast | 93.9 | 98.9 | 95.0 | -2.7 | 97.1 | 96.3 | 90.7 |
| Midwest | 105.0 | 105.3 | 105.4 | 0.3 | 104.7 | 107.3 | 107.1 |
| South | 126.9 | 123.7 | 123.6 | 4.0 | 123.7 | 122.8 | 123.0 |
| West | 101.7 | 100.2 | 102.2 | -3.1 | 99.7 | 102.5 | 102.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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