Global| Apr 07 2017U.S. Payroll Growth Is Disappointing, But Unemployment Rate Declines
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The labor market softened this winter. Nonfarm payrolls rose 98,000 (1.6% y/y) during March. The increase followed a 219,000 February rise and a 216,000 January gain. These figures together were revised down by 38,000. Expectations [...]
The labor market softened this winter. Nonfarm payrolls rose 98,000 (1.6% y/y) during March. The increase followed a 219,000 February rise and a 216,000 January gain. These figures together were revised down by 38,000. Expectations had been for a 178,000 increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Average hourly earnings increased an expected 0.2% (2.7% y/y). The unemployment rate declined to 4.5%. Stability at 4.7% had been forecast. The overall unemployment rate, including marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 8.9%, its lowest level since December 2007.
The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 98 | 219 | 216 | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| Previous | -- | 235 | 238 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 11 | 26 | 12 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Construction | 6 | 59 | 34 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Private Service-Producing | 61 | 125 | 153 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Government | 9 | -2 | 12 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 6.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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