Global| Oct 24 2014U.S. New Home Sales Reach Cycle High; Prices Fall Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New home sales during September edged up 0.2% m/m to 467,000 (17.0% y/y) following a revised 15.3% August rise to 466,000, initially reported as 504,000. It was the highest level of sales since July 2008. The latest figure essentially [...]
New home sales during September edged up 0.2% m/m to 467,000 (17.0% y/y) following a revised 15.3% August rise to 466,000, initially reported as 504,000. It was the highest level of sales since July 2008. The latest figure essentially matched expectations for 468,000 sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These volume numbers are quoted at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
The median price for a new home declined 9.7% to $259,000 (-4.0% y/y) from $286,800 in August, revised from $275,600. The average price of a new home fell 10.3% to 313,200 (-2.6% y/y) from $349,300, revised from $347,900.
Home sales in the Midwest jumped 12.3% to 64,000 (6.7% y/y) while sales in the South gained 2.0% to 261,000 (18.6% y/y). New home sales in the Northeast were unchanged at 30,000 (20.0% y/y) while sales in the West declined 8.9% to 112,000 (+19.1% y/y).
The inventory of unsold homes increased 1.5% to 207,000 (13.1% y/y), the highest level since July 2010 and up 45.8% from the 2012 low. The months' sales supply of new homes held at 5.3 months, its lowest level since May. The length of time to sell a new home of 3.1 months was higher than the 2.9 months last October but down from 14.0 months at the end of 2009.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from the Action Economics survey is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Using the Federal Reserve's Beige Book to Track Economic Activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here.
| U.S. New Home Sales | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total SAAR, 000s | 467 | 466 | 404 | 17.0 | 430 | 368 | 306 |
| Northeast | 30 | 30 | 21 | 20.0 | 31 | 29 | 21 |
| Midwest | 64 | 57 | 57 | 6.7 | 61 | 47 | 45 |
| South | 261 | 256 | 230 | 18.6 | 233 | 196 | 168 |
| West | 112 | 123 | 96 | 19.1 | 106 | 97 | 72 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 259,000 | 286,800 | 285,200 | -4.0 | 265,092 | 242,108 | 224,317 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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