Global| Jan 26 2011U.S. New Home Sales Gain Limited By Heavy Snowfall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Home sales last month likely were affected by the weather. Total new home sales in December rose 17.5% m/m to 329,000 SAAR from 280,000 in November, revised from 290,000. Consensus expectations were for 299,000 sales. The rise in [...]
Home sales last month likely were affected by the weather. Total new home sales in December rose 17.5% m/m to 329,000 SAAR from 280,000 in November, revised from 290,000. Consensus expectations were for 299,000 sales. The rise in sales was concentrated, however, in the Western region of the country suggesting a strong effect from record snowfalls after Christmas, notably in the Northeast and Midwest. Sales in the West rose by nearly three-quarters m/m to 110,000, the highest level since July, 2008. Elsewhere, sales were little-changed. In the Northeast sales slipped 5.0% to 19,000 for the third consecutive monthly decline. In the Midwest sales inched up 3.2% to 32,000. Sales in the South rose 1.8% to 168,000, the third increase in four months.
For the 2010 as a whole, new home sales fell 14.2% to 321,000, the fourth consecutive annual decline to another record low. Sales have fallen by three-quarters from the all-time record 1,279,000 in 2005.
Despite the sales weakness last month, the median price of a new single family home rose 12.1% to $241,000, the highest since April 2008. For the year as a whole prices rose 2.9% to an average $220,708 following two consecutive years of decline. Since the monthly peak in January 2007, prices have fallen 8.0%.
Given the rise in home sales last month, the inventory of unsold homes fell to a 6.9 months supply versus the recent high of 9.1 in August. The latest also was nearly half the high in January 2009.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database.
How Might the Fed's Large-Scale Asset Purchases Lower Long-Term Interest Rates? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond is available here.
| US New Home Sales | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y % | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (SAAR, 000s) | 329 | 280 | 280 | -7.6 | 321 | 374 | 482 |
| Northeast | 19 | 20 | 30 | -50.0 | 31 | 32 | 35 |
| Midwest | 32 | 31 | 40 | -37.3 | 44 | 54 | 69 |
| South | 168 | 165 | 161 | -8.7 | 173 | 201 | 265 |
| West | 110 | 64 | 49 | 32.5 | 74 | 87 | 113 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 241,500 | 215,500 | 201,600 | 8.5 | 220,708 | 214,500 | 230,408 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
