Global| Aug 25 2014U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Continue Lower
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The market for new homes hit a soft patch during the last two months. New home sales during July fell 2.4% (+12.3% y/y) to 412,000 following June's decline to 422,000, initially reported as 406,000. The figures compare to May's peak [...]
The market for new homes hit a soft patch during the last two months. New home sales during July fell 2.4% (+12.3% y/y) to 412,000 following June's decline to 422,000, initially reported as 406,000. The figures compare to May's peak of 454,000. Consensus expectations had been for 428,000 sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These volume numbers are quoted at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
The median price for a new home declined 3.7% to $269,800, +2.9% y/y. Prices have fallen 5.9% from the peak two months ago which was revised higher to $286,600. The average price of a new home improved 2.1% (2.8% y/y) to a new peak of $339,100.
Sales declines in July reflected a 30.8% drop (-43.8% y/y) in the Northeast; sales in the West were off 15.2% (-3.3% y/y). Sales in the Midwest declined 8.8% (-1.9% y/y) but sales in the South improved 8.1%, up one-third y/y.
The inventory of unsold homes increased 4.1% (19.9%) to the highest level since August 2010, up 44.4% from the 2012 low. The months' sales supply of new homes rose to 6.0 months, its highest since October 2011. The length of time to sell a new home of 3.5 months was up from 2.9 months last August but down from 14.0 months at the end of 2009.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure is from the Action Economics survey and is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Home Sales | Jul | Jun | May | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total SAAR, 000s | 412 | 422 | 454 | 12.3 | 430 | 368 | 306 |
| Northeast | 18 | 26 | 36 | -43.8 | 31 | 29 | 21 |
| Midwest | 52 | 57 | 73 | -1.9 | 61 | 47 | 45 |
| South | 253 | 234 | 236 | 33.2 | 233 | 196 | 168 |
| West | 89 | 105 | 109 | -3.3 | 106 | 97 | 72 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 269,800 | 280,100 | 286,600 | 2.9 | 265,092 | 242,108 | 224,317 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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