Global| Jan 06 2014U.S. New and Unfilled Factory Orders Continue To Show Strength
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Orders to all manufacturers matched expectations and jumped 1.8% (4.9% y/y) during November, reaching a new expansion high. The gain was powered by a little-revised 3.4% surge in durable goods orders, led by higher aircraft orders. [...]
Orders to all manufacturers matched expectations and jumped 1.8% (4.9% y/y) during November, reaching a new expansion high. The gain was powered by a little-revised 3.4% surge in durable goods orders, led by higher aircraft orders. Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) improved 0.3% (-0.3% y/y) and made up October's dip. Shipments from petroleum refineries jumped 1.4% (-2.9% y/y) but that was offset by a 2.1% decline (+3.4% y/y) in shipments from textile mills. Apparel shipments declined 1.1% (+1.6% y/y), paper products shipments fell 0.9% (-1.9% y/y) and basic chemical shipments slipped 0.1%, unchanged y/y.
The greater strength in new orders versus shipments generated a 1.0% improvement (7.8% y/y) in unfilled orders. The increase was led by a 1.3% rise (8.7% y/y) in transportation equipment, reflecting a 2.3% gain (14.1% y/y) in commercial aircraft. Excluding the transportation sector altogether, unfilled orders rose 0.5% (6.5% y/y). Backlogs of computers & electronic products jumped 1.3% (6.3% y/y) while unfilled machinery orders gained 0.3% (2.1% y/y). Unfilled electrical equipment orders slipped 0.5% (+2.8% y/y).
Inventories in the factory sector remained unchanged (1.8% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Apparel inventories rose 1.1% (12.9% y/y) but chemical inventories ticked 0.1% lower (+2.6% y/y), down for the seventh straight month. In the durable goods sector, inventories gained 0.2% (2.6% y/y). Transportation sector inventories inched 0.4% higher m/m (8.1% y/y) reflecting a 16.3% y/y surge in nondefense aircraft & parts. Computer & electronic products inventories rose 0.8% (1.9% y/y) but electrical equipment & appliance inventories fell 0.9% (+1.7% y/y). Machinery stockpiles slipped 0.3% (+1.4% y/y.
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector- NAICS Classification | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 1.8 | -0.5 | 1.8 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 12.9 | 16.3 |
| Shipments | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 12.1 | 11.0 |
| Inventories | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 10.2 | 9.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 10.0 | 5.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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