Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Aug 13 2007

U.S. July Retail Sales Improved, June Revised Up

Summary

U.S. retail sales in July rose 0.3% after a 0.7% decline in June that was revised slightly shallower versus the initial report. The July figure compared with Consensus expectations for a 0.1% decline. Excluding autos, retail sales [...]


U.S. retail sales in July rose 0.3% after a 0.7% decline in June that was revised slightly shallower versus the initial report. The July figure compared with Consensus expectations for a 0.1% decline.

Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.4% and more than reversed a 0.2% June decline that also was revised slightly shallower.The July increase was double Consensus expectations for a 0.2% increase.

Nonauto retail sales less gasoline rose 0.6% (5.2% y/y) after an unchanged June reading that was revised up from a 0.3% decline reported at first.

Sales of discretionary items were generally firm last month. Furniture, home furnishings & appliance stores recovered 0.8% (1.6% y/y of a 1.2% June decline that was half the shortfall initially estimated. Sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.9% (6.0% y/y) after rising a little revised 0.4% during the prior month.Apparel store sales rebounded 1.3% (5.8% y/y) following a 1.2% June drop that was little revised.

Building material sales during July rose 0.2% (0.4% y/y) but recovered just a piece of the prior month's little revised 2.2% plunge. Sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) rose 0.4% (7.3% y/y) after June's downwardly revised 0.6% increase and July restaurant & bar sales jumped 1.3% (8.0% y/y), double the prior month's rise.

Sales by motor vehicle & parts dealers fell 0.3% (-1.2% y/y) as unit sales of new vehicles fell 2.6% m/m in July.

Gasoline service station sales fell 0.8% reflecting a 3.0% m/m decline in gas prices at the pump to an average $2.97 per gallon (-0.5% y/y).

  July June Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Retail Sales & Food Services 0.3% -0.7% 3.2% 6.2% 6.6% 6.1%
  Excluding Autos 0.4% -0.2% 4.4% 7.3% 7.6% 7.1%
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

    More in Author Profile »

More Economy in Brief