U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate Inches Higher but Hiring Dips

The job openings rate rose to 3.7% during September from 3.6% during August. The latest figure compared to 3.2% one year earlier and remained near the highest level of the economic recovery. The private sector job openings rate of 4.0% compared to 2.2% in the public sector. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. Employers are having difficulty finding workers. The hires rate declined to 3.5%, its lowest level since January. The private sector rate of 3.9% compared to 1.5% in the public sector. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports these figures in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

The actual number of job openings rose 2.8% m/m to 5.526 million and was 18.1% higher versus last year. A 19.7% y/y rise in private sector openings was led by a 35.3% y/y gain in professional & business services. That was followed by 24.4% y/y increase in health care & social assistance job openings. Factory sector openings increased 9.6% y/y while leisure & hospitality openings improved 5.3% y/y. In the government sector, job openings increased 4.8% y/y.

The number of hires dipped 0.6% m/m to 5.049 million (-0.2% y/y). Private sector hiring eased 0.3% y/y reflecting an 8.3% y/y decline in professional & business services jobs and a 2.4% fall in health care & social assistance employment. Offsetting these declines was an 8.0% y/y gain in leisure & hospitality jobs and a 7.2% rise in construction hiring. The number of factory sector workers increased 1.4% y/y but government jobs dipped 0.3% y/y.

The total job separations rate remained steady m/m at 3.4% as separations were fairly stable y/y. Construction sector separations jumped 10.0% y/y and leisure & hospitality separations increased 8.6% y/y. Factory sector separations increased 5.7% y/y. and they rose 5.4% in retail trade. Health care separations rose 3.5% y/y but professional & business services separations fell 9.1% y/y. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements.

The layoff & discharge rate held steady at 1.2% m/m and y/y. The private sector rate of 1.4% compared to 0.4% in the public sector. Layoffs overall rose 2.2% y/y; 10.8% y/y in the public sector and 1.7% y/y amongst private sector firms.

The JOLTS survey dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.

The U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy is the title of today's speech by N.Y. Fed President William C. Dudley and it can be found here http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2015/dud151112.html

Initial claims for unemployment insurance held steady during the week ended November 7 at 276,000 (-6.1% y/y). The prior week's level was unrevised and the highest since the last week of September. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 270,000 initial claims. The four week moving average increased slightly to 267,750 but remained near the 15-year low. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.

In the week ended October 31, continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose w/w to 2.174 million (-10.3% y/y). The four-week moving average inched higher to 2.165 million, but also remained near the 15-year low.

The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.6%, equaling the lowest point since June 2000.

By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary with North Dakota (0.57%), North Carolina (0.65%), Virginia (0.72%), Florida (0.73%), Tennessee (0.80%) and Vermont (1.03%) at the low end of the range. At the high end remained Massachusetts (1.74%), Connecticut (2.00%), Pennsylvania (2.03%), California (2.09%), New Jersey (2.34%) and Alaska (3.14%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.

The U.S. Treasury Department reported a $136.5 billion budget deficit during October, deeper than the $121.7 billion deficit twelve months earlier A $127.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey..

Overall revenues declined 0.8% versus October FY'14, dragged down by a 58.4% y/y decline in corporate income tax payments. Individual income taxes also grew by a muted 2.4% y/y. Growth in social insurance contributions remained moderate at 4.0% y/y while excise taxes fell 5.7% y/y.

Government spending advanced 3.9% y/y, held back by a 4.6% y/y decline in defense outlays as well as a 24.7% y/y retreat in spending for education, training, employment & social services. Still on the strong-side was growth in outlays on health programs of 10.9% with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Medicare payments also grew a firm 9.8% y/y while Social Security spending growth was steady at 4.3% y/y. Veterans benefits & services payments grew 9.6% y/y. Offsetting these gains was an 8.7% y/y decline in income security payments with the lower unemployment rate. Interest payments also declined 5.3% y/y.

Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.

CBO's Revenue Forecasting Record from the Congressional Budget Office can be found https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/50831-RevenueForecasting-OneColumn.pdf