Global| Nov 05 2004U.S. Job Growth Strong, Revisions Positive
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Nonfarm payrolls grew 337,000 last month following upwardly revised gains of 139,000 and 198,000 during the prior two months. Consensus expectations had been for a 175,000 job rise in October. Construction sector jobs grew 71,000 [...]
Nonfarm payrolls grew 337,000 last month following upwardly revised gains of 139,000 and 198,000 during the prior two months. Consensus expectations had been for a 175,000 job rise in October.
Construction sector jobs grew 71,000 (3.9% y/y).
Hiring in private service producing industries also was quite strong, up 231,000 (1.8% y/y) following an upwardly revised September increase of 99,000. Hiring in professional & business services rose 97,000 (3.7% y/y) with temporary help services jobs up 47,600 (11.5% y/y). Jobs in the financial sector rose another 17,000 m/m (1.3% y/y) and education & health services jobs rose 62,000 (2.2% y/y). Government payrolls grew 41,000 (0.7% y/y).
Factory sector payrolls fell for the second consecutive month, down 5,000 (+0.3% y/y). Weakness was broad based across industries.
The index of aggregate hours worked (employment times hours worked) rose 0.3% (2.4% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in September. The index began the fourth quarter 2.0% (AR) above the prior quarter after 3.1% growth in 3Q.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (2.6% y/y) after a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in September.
The unemployment rate from the separate household survey rose to 5.5% as a 298,000 (1.2% y/y) gain in employment lagged labor force growth of 367,000 (0.7% y/y). The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 65.9%.
| Employment | Oct | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 337,000 | 139,000 | 198,000 | 1.6% | -0.3% | -1.1% | 0.0% |
| Reported last month | 96,000 | 128,000 | 1.3% | ||||
| Manufacturing | -5,000 | -14,000 | 14,000 | 0.3% | -4.8% | -7.2% | -4.8% |
| Average Weekly Hours | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.7 | 33.7 | 33.7 | 33.8 | 34.0 |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| Unemployment Rate | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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