Global| Jul 21 2016U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Dip
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance of 253,000 (-3.8% y/y) during the week ended July 16 compared to an unrevised 254,000 in the prior week. They remained near a record low. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 262,000 [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance of 253,000 (-3.8% y/y) during the week ended July 16 compared to an unrevised 254,000 in the prior week. They remained near a record low. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 262,000 claims. The four-week moving average of claims ease to 257,750.
The latest claims figure covers the survey week for July nonfarm payrolls. Claims fell 5,000 (-1.9%) from the June period. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
In the week ending July 9, continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 2.128 million (-4.5% y/y) from 2.153 million. Continuing claims were near the lowest level since 2000. The four-week moving average eased to 2.141 million.
The insured rate of unemployment returned to the record low of 1.5%.
Insured rates of unemployment continued to vary across states. Near the low end of the range were South Dakota (0.36%), Nebraska (0.55%) Florida (0.66%), Indiana (0.75%), Virginia (0.81%) and Tennessee (0.89%). At the high end of the scale were Texas (1.60%), Nevada (1.84%), Massachusetts (1.95%), Illinois (1.92%), Pennsylvania (2.45%) and New Jersey (2.62%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/16/16 | 07/09/16 | 07/02/16 | Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 253 | 254 | 254 | -3.8% | 277 | 307 | 342 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,128 | 2,153 | -4.5 | 2,268 | 2,607 | 2,978 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.5 | 1.6 |
1.7 |
1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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