Global| Nov 17 2016U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Underpin Labor Market Strength
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Labor market improvement is nowhere more evident than in fewer claims for jobless insurance. Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 235,000 (-14.5% y/y) during the week ended November 12 following an unrevised fall to [...]
Labor market improvement is nowhere more evident than in fewer claims for jobless insurance. Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 235,000 (-14.5% y/y) during the week ended November 12 following an unrevised fall to 254,000 claims in the week prior. It was the lowest level of claims since November 1973. The four-week moving average of claims fell to 253,500. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 260,000 claims in the latest week.
The latest claims figure covers the survey week for November nonfarm payrolls, and there was a 26,000 decline (-10.0%) versus the same period in October. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of claims and the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for jobless benefits declined 3.2% to 1.977 million (-9.4% y/y) in the week ended November 5, the lowest point since April 2000. The four-week moving average declined to 2.023 million.
The insured rate of unemployment declined to a record low of 1.4%.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continue to vary. For the week ended October 29, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.31%), Nebraska (0.45%), Utah (0.60%), North Carolina (0.61%), South Carolina (0.76%) and Maine (0.77%). The highest rates were found in Illinois (1.57%), Massachusetts (1.67%), Pennsylvania (1.86%), Connecticut (2.00%), New Jersey (2.23%) and Alaska (3.36`%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Escaping Unemployment Traps from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 11/12/16 | 11/05/16 | 10/29/16 | Y/Y % | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 235 | 254 | 266 | -14.5 | 277 | 307 | 342 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,977 | 2,043 | -9.4 | 2,268 | 2,607 | 2,978 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.4 | 1.5 |
1.6 |
1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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