Global| May 30 2013U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Unexpectedly Notch Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims increased to 354,000 (-7.3% y/y) during the week ended May 25 from a revised 344,000, initially reported as 340,000. Consensus expectations were for 340,000 claims. The four week moving average of [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims increased to 354,000 (-7.3% y/y) during the week ended May 25 from a revised 344,000, initially reported as 340,000. Consensus expectations were for 340,000 claims. The four week moving average of claims rose to 347,250 from 340,500. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended May 18 increased to 2.986M (-9.0% y/y) from the low of 2.923M. The four week moving average of continuing claims fell to a cycle-low of 2.987M. The insured rate of unemployment held at 2.3% where it's been for six weeks. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of May 11, the latest figure available, the grand total of all benefit recipients ticked up w/w to 4.579M, (-25.4% y/y. That compares to a cycle peak of 12.060M in January 2010. The number of individuals who are collecting emergency and extended payments fell to a new low of 1.727 million (-34.1% y/y).
By state, the insured unemployment rate continued to vary greatly with Nebraska (1.04%), Louisiana (1.13%), Virginia (1.22%), Texas (1.48%), Florida (1.53%), Tennessee (1.55%), South Carolina (1.67%) and Ohio (1.77%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Michigan (2.10%), Maryland (2.29%), New York (2.52%), Illinois (2.67%), Wisconsin (2.62%), (Nevada 2.85%), California (2.89%) and New Jersey (3.15%).
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The consensus estimates come from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 05/25/13 | 05/18/13 | 05/11/13 | Y/Y % | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 354 | 344 | 363 | -7.3 | 375 | 409 | 459 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,986 | 2,923 | -9.0 | 3,318 | 3,744 | 4,544 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.6 (5/12) |
2.6 | 3.0 | 3.6 |
| Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 4.579M | -25.4 | 6.047M | 7.750M | 9.850M |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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