Global| May 15 2008U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ticked Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance last week ticked up a modest 6,000 to 371,000 following the prior week's little revised 17,000 rise. Consensus expectations had been for claims to total 370,000 last week. The four week moving [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance last week ticked up a modest 6,000 to 371,000 following the prior week's little revised 17,000 rise. Consensus expectations had been for claims to total 370,000 last week.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell very slightly week-to-week to 365,750 (19.5% y/y). Claims averaged 365,000 during April.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 28,000 after a gain of 2,000 during the prior week. That was revised from the initial report of a moderate decline. The latest level was the highest since March 2004. It provides some indication of workers' ability to find employment.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 2.3% for the third week. That was the highest since 2004.
Yesterday's speech by Fed Governor Randall S. Kroszner titled Risk Management and Basel II can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 05/10/08 | 05/03/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 371 | 365 | 22.8% | 322 | 313 | 331 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,060 | 22.9% | 2,552 | 2,459 | 2,662 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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