Global| Jul 14 2016U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Remain Unchanged Near Record Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims held steady at 254,000 (-8.6% y/y) during the week ended July 9. It was the lowest level since mid-April and near a record low. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 265,000 claims. The [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims held steady at 254,000 (-8.6% y/y) during the week ended July 9. It was the lowest level since mid-April and near a record low. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 265,000 claims. The four-week moving average of claims fell to 259,000. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
In the week ending July 2, continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 2.149 million (-3.8% y/y) from 2.117 million. Continuing claims were near the lowest level since 2000. The four-week moving average eased to 2.143 million.
The insured rate of unemployment notched higher to 1.6%.
Insured rates of unemployment continued to vary across states. Near the low end of the range were South Dakota (0.36%), Nebraska (0.53%) Florida (0.69%), Indiana (0.75%), Virginia (0.78%) and Tennessee (0.83%). At the high end of the scale were Texas (1.67%), Nevada (1.85%), Massachusetts (1.94%), Illinois (1.94%), New Jersey (2.42%) and Pennsylvania (2.44%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/09/16 | 07/02/16 | 06/25/16 | Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 254 | 254 | 270 | -8.6% | 277 | 307 | 342 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,149 | 2,117 | -3.8 | 2,268 | 2,607 | 2,978 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.6 | 1.5 |
1.7 |
1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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