Global| Jul 09 2015U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Reach Five-Month High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims increased to 297,000 (-5.9% y/y) during the week ended July 4 from 282,000 during the prior week, revised from 281,000. The four week moving average rose to 279,500, the highest level since early- [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims increased to 297,000 (-5.9% y/y) during the week ended July 4 from 282,000 during the prior week, revised from 281,000. The four week moving average rose to 279,500, the highest level since early-May. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 275,000 initial claims. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 2.334 million (-10.5% y/y) in the latest week, the highest level since March. The four-week moving average increased to 2.268 million.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.7%.
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with South Dakota (0.29%), Indiana (0.77%), Virginia (0.82%), South Carolina (0.85%), Florida (0.85%) and Tennessee (1.05%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (1.91%), Illinois (1.95%), Connecticut (2.24%), California (2.31%), Pennsylvania (2.33%) and New Jersey (2.44%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
The Recovery's Final Frontier? is the title of yesterday's speech by John C. Williams, President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and it can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/04/15 | 06/27/15 | 06/20/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 297 | 282 | 271 | -5.9 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,334 | 2,265 | -10.5 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 (6/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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