Global| Feb 26 2009U.S. Initial Claims For Unemployment Insurance Highest Since 1982; Continuing Claims Another Record
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. labor market weakened ever further as initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to their highest level since 1982. The Labor Department indicated that initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped last week 36,000 to [...]
The U.S. labor market weakened ever further as initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to their highest level since 1982. The Labor Department indicated that initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped last week 36,000 to 667,000 and the prior week's figure was revised up slightly. The latest level again surpassed Consensus expectations for 625,000 initial claims.
The Labor Department indicated that in the week ending February 14, the largest increases in claims were in New Jersey (+2,093), Virginia (+912), Rhode Island (+493), Vermont (+106), and South Dakota (+22), while the largest decreases were in California (-16,550), Kentucky (-7,741), Pennsylvania (-6,547), Illinois (-6,248), and New York (-3,955)
Extreme labor market stress was shown by a the 114,000 increase in continuing claims for unemployment insurance. That followed an upwardly revised 178,000 increase during the prior week. At 5,112,000, the level of continuing claims set yet another record. The series dates back to 1966. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 89,300 to 4,932,2500. Continuing claims provide some indication of workers' ability to find employment and they lag the initial claims figures by one week.
Though the latest level of continuing claims was a record, the labor force has grown as well, by more than 27% over the last twenty years. Therefore, the insured rate of unemployment was not at a new record as it ticked higher to 3.8% which was the highest since 1983. During the last ten years there has been a 93% correlation between the level of the insured unemployment rate and the overall rate of unemployment published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending February 7 were in Michigan (7.5 percent), Oregon (7.3), Idaho (7.0), Wisconsin (6.4), Pennsylvania (6.2), Nevada (5.9), Montana (5.7), Rhode Island (5.7), Alaska (5.6), Indiana (5.5), and New Jersey (5.5).
The unemployment insurance claim data is available in Haver's WEEKLY database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/20/09 | 02/13/09 | 02/06/09 | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 667 | 631 | 627 | 85.8% | 420 | 321 | 313 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 5,112 | 4,998 | 86.3% | 3,342 | 2,552 | 2,459 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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