U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Retreat

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 340,000 (-9.1% y/y) during the week ended March 2 versus 347,000 a week earlier (revised from 344,000). Consensus expectations were for 355,000 claims. The four week moving average of claims fell to 348,750, the lowest level since March 2008. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended February 23 ticked up to 3.094M (-10.0% y/y). The four week moving average of continuing claims fell to 3.122M. The insured rate of unemployment held at 2.4%, the lowest level since July 2008. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of February 16, the latest figure available, the grand total of all benefit recipients fell to a not seasonally adjusted 5.402M, the lowest level since early-December. That compares to a cycle peak of 12.060M in January 2010.

By state, the insured unemployment rate continued to vary greatly with South Dakota (1.20%), Virginia (1.53%), Texas (1.55%), Florida (1.63%), Alabama (1.98%), Indiana (2.18%) and Ohio (2.45%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were California (3.33%), New York (3.35%), Maine (3.48%), Michigan (3.51%), Wisconsin (3.90%), New Jersey (4.09%) and Pennsylvania (4.14%).

Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The consensus estimates come from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.

The latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions from the Federal Reserve can be found here http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/files/Beigebook_20130306.pdf

The U.S. foreign trade deficit during January deepened to $44.4 from $38.1B in December, revised from $38.5B. A $43.0B deficit had been expected. The deterioration was due to a 1.8% increase (-0.9% y/y) in imports set against a 1.2% decline (+3.3% y/y) in exports. In chained 2005 dollars, the deficit in goods deteriorated to $48.0B. Real imports increased 1.3% (0.3% y/y) while real exports plunged 1.7% (+1.5% y/y).

Leading the jump in imports was a 12.3% gain (-13.1% y/y) in the value of petroleum imports. The quantity of petroleum product imports gained 15.1% m/m but it was down 5.2% y/y. The price of crude oil fell to $94.08 from $95.16. Real imports less petroleum were unchanged in January (+2.1% y/y). Real capital goods imports recovered 1.2% (3.8% y/y) but nonauto consumer goods imports were off 2.0% (+3.1% y/y). Real auto imports fell 2.8% and by 2.8% y/y. Nominal services imports gained 1.3% (0.4% y/y) as travel imports jumped 2.9% (0.5% y/y) and passenger fares surged 3.6% (2.1% y/y).

Real merchandise exports declined 1.7% (+1.5% y/y) as industrial supplies, mostly petroleum products, fell 6.0% (+1.3% y/y). The constant dollar value of motor vehicle exports rose 1.2% (-3.0% y/y); real exports of nonauto consumer goods exports gained 1.7% (6.0% y/y) and real capital goods exports rose 1.2% (1.5% y/y). Services exports slipped 0.3% (+5.5% y/y). Passenger fares rose 1.8% (11.4% y/y) but travel exports fell 1.6% (+10.3% y/y).

By country, the January goods trade deficit with mainland China deteriorated m/m to $27.8B. Exports to China rose 12.1% y/y and U.S. imports increased 8.1% y/y. With Japan, the deficit deepened to $6.1B. U.S. exports fell 8.5% y/y and imports fell 4.9% y/y. The deficit with the European Union was roughly unchanged at  $8.6B. U.S. exports fell 4.1% y/y while imports were off 2.4%.

The international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics consensus survey, which is carried in the AS1REPNA.