Global| Jan 22 2015U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Ease W/W but Trend Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
First-time claims for unemployment insurance fell to 307,000 during the week ended January 17 from 317,000 during the prior week, revised from 316,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims increased to 306,500, the highest [...]
First-time claims for unemployment insurance fell to 307,000 during the week ended January 17 from 317,000 during the prior week, revised from 316,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims increased to 306,500, the highest level since early-July. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 300,000 claims in the latest week.
The latest weekly claims figure covers the survey period for January nonfarm payrolls and claims rose 18,000 (6.2%) from the December period. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended January 10 increased to 2.443 million (-17.2% y/y) from 2.428 million. The four-week moving average nudged higher to 2.427 million.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.8% for the second week.
By state, in the week ended January 2 the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with North Carolina (1.12%), Oklahoma (1.18%), Louisiana (1.18%, Virginia (1.19%), Utah (1.22%) and Texas (1.29%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Washington (2.63%), California (2.76%), Wisconsin (3.38%), Pennsylvania (3.71%), Connecticut (3.83%) and New Jersey (3.96%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Current Account Surplus May Damp the Effects of China's Credit Boom from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 01/17/15 | 01/10/15 | 01/03/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 307 | 317 | 304 | -8.1 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,443 | 2,428 | -17.2 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 (01/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
