Global| Apr 12 2017U.S. Import Prices Ease With Lower Oil Costs
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices declined 0.2% (+4.2% y/y) during March following a 0.4% February increase, revised from 0.2%. A 0.3% fall had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted. Petroleum [...]
Import prices declined 0.2% (+4.2% y/y) during March following a 0.4% February increase, revised from 0.2%. A 0.3% fall had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted.
Petroleum import prices declined 3.6% (+52.1% y/y), the first monthly decline since November. Nonpetroleum import prices improved 0.2%. The y/y increase accelerated to 1.2%, the strongest twelve-month rise in five years. Industrial supplies & materials prices excluding petroleum strengthened 1.2% (7.8% y/y), strong for the fifth consecutive month. Nonauto consumer goods prices eased 0.2%, but the y/y decline lessened to -0.2%. Motor vehicle & parts prices remained unchanged, and they've been fairly steady for a year. Capital goods prices notched 0.1% higher (-0.6% y/y) after declining from 2013 through 2016. Capital goods prices excluding computers, peripherals & semiconductors remained steady (-0.4% y/y).
Export prices improved 0.2% (3.6% y/y) following an unrevised 0.3% gain. A 0.1% uptick had been expected.
Agricultural commodity prices jumped 0.9% (5.3% y/y) after a 1.5% increase. Nonagricultural export prices improved 0.2% last month, and the 3.3% y/y increase followed declines in each year since 2012. Foods, feeds & beverage prices strengthened 0.9% (5.3% y/y) following years of decline. Industrial supplies & materials costs gained 0.3% (11.5% y/y), as petroleum prices strengthened 39.3% y/y. Nonagricultural supplies & materials prices excluding fuels & building materials strengthened 0.8% m/m (4.2% y/y). Capital goods prices improved 0.1% (0.4% y/y), but computer & peripheral product prices declined 2.6% y/y. Motor vehicle & parts prices held steady for the second straight months and were unchanged y/y. Nonauto consumer goods prices increased 0.3%, but the y/y decline held fairly steady at -2.2%.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 4.2 | -3.3 | -10.2 | -1.1 |
| Petroleum | -3.6 | 1.3 | 5.7 | 52.1 | -19.7 | -46.0 | -5.6 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | -1.5 | -2.8 | 0.1 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 3.6 | -3.2 | -6.3 | -0.5 |
| Agricultural | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 5.3 | -5.4 | -13.3 | -2.7 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 3.3 | -3.0 | -5.5 | -0.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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