Global| Jul 13 2016U.S. Import Price Increase Driven by Oil Costs; Nonoil Prices Ease
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices rose 0.2% (-4.8% y/y) during June following a 1.4% surge in May. It was the smallest increase since a decline in February and fell short of expectations for a 0.5% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These [...]
Import prices rose 0.2% (-4.8% y/y) during June following a 1.4% surge in May. It was the smallest increase since a decline in February and fell short of expectations for a 0.5% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted.
A 6.4% rise in petroleum import prices (-26.6% y/y) was the smallest rise in four months. Nonpetroleum import prices declined 0.3% (-2.0% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. Nonoil industrial supplies & materials costs eased 0.1% (-6.1% y/y) following a 1.5% surge. Foods, feeds & beverage costs declined 1.3% (-2.5% y/y). Motor vehicle & parts prices remained unchanged (-0.4% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods prices fell 0.2% (-0.5% y/y) and reversed May's increase. Capital goods prices fell 0.3% (-2.1y/y) after remaining unchanged. Capital goods prices excluding computers, peripherals & semiconductors eased 0.1% (-1.6% y/y).
Export prices increased 0.8% (-3.5% y/y) following a 1.2% jump, revised from 1.1%. A 0.4% increase had been expected.
Agricultural commodity prices surged 2.4% (-1.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Nonagricultural commodity prices improved 0.5% (-3.8% y/y) following a 1.0% increase. Foods, feeds & beverage prices strengthened 2.5% (-0.4% y/y) following a 3.0% gain. Industrial supplies & materials costs also jumped 2.1% (-9.6% y/y) after a 3.0% rise. Nonauto consumer goods prices eased 0.4% (-2.6% y/y) after a 0.2% increase. Capital goods prices ticked 0.1% higher (-0.3% y/y) following no change. Motor vehicle & parts prices remained unchanged (-0.8% y/y) for the third straight month.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve covering regional economic conditions can be found here.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | -4.8 | -10.2 | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| Petroleum | 6.4 | 16.3 | 10.6 | -26.6 | -46.0 | -5.6 | -2.6 |
| Nonpetroleum | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | -2.0 | -2.8 | 0.1 | -0.6 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | -3.5 | -6.3 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| Agricultural | 2.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | -1.4 | -13.3 | -2.7 | 1.6 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | -3.8 | -5.5 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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