Global| Jan 10 2018U.S. Import and Export Prices Are Little Changed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices overall ticked 0.1% higher during December following a 0.8% November increase, revised from 0.7%. From December of 2016 to December of 2017, prices increased 3.0%. A 0.4% gain had been expected during last month in the [...]
Import prices overall ticked 0.1% higher during December following a 0.8% November increase, revised from 0.7%. From December of 2016 to December of 2017, prices increased 3.0%. A 0.4% gain had been expected during last month in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted.
The increase in import prices last month was led by a 2.0% rise (20.6% y/y) in petroleum prices following an 8.1% jump. Nonpetroleum import prices declined 0.2% (+1.3% y/y) and countered November's rise. The y/y gain reversed the decline in 2016. Industrial supplies & materials prices improved 0.7% (12.3% y/y) after a 4.0% strengthening. Industrial supplies prices excluding petroleum fell 0.3% (+7.1% y/y) following a 1.5% rise. Auto prices remained steady (-0.3% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick, while nonauto consumer goods prices eased 0.1% (+0.2% y/y) following no change. Capital goods prices held steady (0.7% y/y) after a 0.1% dip. Foods, feeds & beverage prices declined 0.7% (+0.6% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline.
Total export prices eased 0.1% following a 0.5% gain. From December-to-December, prices increased 2.6%. A 0.3% rise for last month had been expected.
Lower agricultural prices led last month's overall export price decline with a 0.4% drop (+1.8% y/y). It followed a 0.8% fall. Nonagricultural prices held steady (2.7% y/y) after a 0.6% gain. Industrial supplies & materials costs fell 0.3% (+5.8% y/y) after a 2.0% jump. Industrial supplies prices excluding fuels slipped 0.1% (+3.5% y/y) following a 0.8% increase. Foods, feeds & beverage prices declined 0.6% (+2.2% y/y), the third decline in four months. Capital goods prices improved 0.1% (1.5% y/y) after a 0.1% dip. Auto prices also slipped 0.1% (+0.6% y/y) for a second straight month. Consumer goods prices excluding autos increased 0.2% (0.5% y/y) after a 0.1% dip.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed breakdowns into individual types of commodities, equipment and many types of nondurable goods are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | -3.3 | -10.2 |
| Petroleum | 2.0 | 8.1 | 0.5 | 20.6 | 26.2 | -19.7 | -46.0 |
| Nonpetroleum | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | -1.5 | -2.8 |
| Exports - All Commodities | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 2.4 | -3.2 | -6.3 |
| Agricultural | -0.4 | -0.8 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | -5.4 | -13.3 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.0 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 2.7 | 2.4 | -3.0 | -5.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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