Global| Sep 19 2018U.S. Housing Starts Rebound After Two Months of Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New home building activity improved last month. Total housing starts rose 9.2% during August (9.4% y/y) to 1.282 million (AR) from 1.174 million in July, revised from 1.168 million. That followed an 11.4% June decline to 1.177 [...]
New home building activity improved last month. Total housing starts rose 9.2% during August (9.4% y/y) to 1.282 million (AR) from 1.174 million in July, revised from 1.168 million. That followed an 11.4% June decline to 1.177 million, revised from 1.158 million. A rise to 1.240 million starts had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Starts of single-family homes increased 1.9% (-0.2% y/y) last month to 876,000 units following a 1.1% July rise to 860,000. Starts of multi-family units surged 29.3% (38.1% y/y) to 406,000, the highest level since March.
The rise in starts last month was led by a 19.1% increase (2.9% y/y) in the West to 318,000, following sharp declines in three of the prior four months. Housing starts in the Midwest also firmed as they improved 9.1% (12.4% y/y) to 191,000 after a 6.7% rise. In the South, housing starts increased 6.5% (15.0% y/y) to 674,000, the highest level since January. Starts in the Northeast held steady (-7.5% y/y) at 99,000, following declines in four of the prior five months.
Building permits declined 5.7% last month (-5.5% y/y) to 1.229 million units following a 0.9% July rise. It was the lowest level of permits since May 2017. Single-family permits were off 6.1% (+2.1% y/y) to 820,000, the lowest level in twelve months. Permits to build multi-family homes dropped 4.9% (-17.7% y/y) to 409,000, the lowest level since March 2016.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,282 | 1,174 | 1,177 | 9.4 | 1,208 | 1,177 | 1,107 |
| Single-Family | 876 | 860 | 851 | -0.2 | 852 | 785 | 713 |
| Multi-Family | 406 | 314 | 326 | 38.1 | 356 | 393 | 394 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 99 | 99 | 104 | -7.5 | 111 | 116 | 135 |
| Midwest | 191 | 175 | 164 | 12.4 | 180 | 185 | 150 |
| South | 674 | 633 | 564 | 15.0 | 603 | 585 | 557 |
| West | 318 | 267 | 345 | 2.9 | 314 | 292 | 265 |
| Building Permits | 1,229 | 1,303 | 1,292 | -5.5 | 1,286 | 1,206 | 1,178 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
