Global| Dec 16 2016U.S. Housing Starts Backpedal; Multi-family Starts Plummet
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Earlier vibrancy registered in the housing market was dimmed by last month's decline in housing starts. Starts fell 18.7% during November (-6.9% y/y) to an annual rate of 1.090 million units. That reversed most of October's 27.4% jump [...]
Earlier vibrancy registered in the housing market was dimmed by last month's decline in housing starts. Starts fell 18.7% during November (-6.9% y/y) to an annual rate of 1.090 million units. That reversed most of October's 27.4% jump to 1.340 million, revised from 1.323 million. A decline to 1.230 million starts had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Multi-family starts declined 45.1% (-31.9% y/y) to 262,000, and reversed October's 76.0% surge. Starts of single-family homes were off 4.1% (+5.3% y/y) to 828,000, but remained near the expansion high.
By region, starts in the Northeast led last month's weakness with a 52.1% drop. It was paced by an 81.2% decline in multi-family starts. Single-family starts fell 7.6%. Total starts in the West declined 22.1%. Multi-family starts fell by one third, and single family starts declined 15.3%. Starts in the Midwest were off 14.2% as multi-family starts fell by two-thirds, but single family starts gained 19.8%. Total starts declined 9.3% in the South. Multi-family starts fell 22.4, and single-family starts were off 4.6%.
Building permits declined 4.7% (-6.6% y/y) to 1.201 million units. Permits to build multi-family structures declined 13.0% to 423,000 (-23.2% y/y). Single-family permits improved 0.5% (5.9% y/y) to 778,000.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y % | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,090 | 1,340 | 1,052 | -6.9 | 1,107 | 1,001 | 928 |
| Single-Family | 828 | 863 | 781 | 5.3 | 713 | 648 | 618 |
| Multi-Family | 262 | 477 | 271 | -31.9 | 395 | 356 | 307 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 80 | 167 | 94 | -36.0 | 136 | 110 | 97 |
| Midwest | 175 | 204 | 149 | 3.6 | 151 | 163 | 150 |
| South | 567 | 625 | 534 | -6.9 | 555 | 496 | 464 |
| West | 268 | 344 | 275 | 0.0 | 265 | 235 | 215 |
| Building Permits | 1,201 | 1,260 | 1,225 | -6.6 | 1,164 | 1,052 | 991 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
