Global| Jul 16 2009U.S. Home Builders’ Index Recovers To Its Highest Since June '08
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
According to the National Association of Home Builders, improvement in the housing market continued during July. Their Composite Housing Market Index recovered the June slip and rose to 17, which equaled the highest level since June [...]
According to the National Association of Home Builders, improvement in the housing market continued during July. Their Composite Housing Market Index recovered the June slip and rose to 17, which equaled the highest level since June of last year. The index is compiled from survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as “good”, “fair”, “poor” or “very high” to “very low”. Numerical results over 50 indicate a predominance of “good” readings.
Also showing improvement during all of the first quarter was the Home Builders' Housing Opportunity Index, which is the share of homes sold that could be considered affordable to a family earning the median income. It jumped to a record high of 72.5% buoyed by lower home prices, lower interest rates and higher income. (There is a break in the series from 2002 to 2003.)
The Home Builders Association indicated that its sub-index of present sales rose this month to the highest level since June '08. At a reading of 17 the figure was up significantly from the January low of 6. Since 1990, the year-to-year change in this index has had an 80% correlation with the year-to-year percentage change in new single-family home sales.
The index of builders’ expectations for home sales in six months held stable but remained near its highest since September. The “traffic" of prospective buyers also improved from June and was up from the record lows of this past Winter.
The strength in the July composite index readings was concentrated in the South. Elsewhere in the country composite indexes were flat-to-lower.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single family detached sales, present time; .1358 for single family detached sales, next six months; and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results, along with other housing and remodeling indexes from NAHB Economics, are included in Haver’s SURVEYS database.
Today's House testimony by Fed Governor Elizabeth A. Duke titled Consumer Protection can be found here.
| Nat'l Association of Home Builders | July | June | July '08 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Housing Market Index (All Good = 100) | 17 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 27 | 42 |
| Single-Family Sales | 17 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 27 | 45 |
| Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 26 | 26 | 23 | 25 | 37 | 51 |
| Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 14 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 21 | 30 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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