Global| Sep 25 2012U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Back Off Seasonally
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Since the summer, petroleum prices have been on the rise but lately the momentum eased.The pump price of regular gasoline fell five cents last week to $3.83 per gallon. However, since fall usually brings with it less driving, prices [...]
Since the summer, petroleum prices have been on the rise but lately the momentum eased.The pump price of regular gasoline fell five cents last week to $3.83 per gallon. However, since fall usually brings with it less driving, prices can be expected to back off. Haver Analytics constructs seasonal factor to reflect these pressures. After adjustment the price for regular rose two cents w/w to $3.76 per gallon.
Additionally reflecting global economic weakness, the price for a barrel of light sweet crude oil fell $3.28 w/w to $94.33 per barrel last week and reversed the gains of the last month. Yesterday, the cost of crude fell further to $92.89 per barrel. Prices peaked at $113.93 in April, 2011. Haver's seasonally adjusted crude oil price fell $2.31 last week to $93.21 per barrel. Brent crude also fell last week to $111.64 per barrel and fell further to $109.64 yesterday.
Natural gas prices also fell last week to $2.75 per mmbtu but yesterday ticked up to $2.77, still roughly half the early-January 2010 peak of $6.50.
The demand for gasoline slipped 0.9% y/y. The demand for residual fuel oil, used for heating, fell 21.3% y/y and distillate demand was off 11.2% y/y. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products increased 1.5% y/y. That comparison was improved from the 5.0% y/y decline this past fall.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY.
| Weekly Price | 09/24/12 | 09/17/12 | 09/10/12 | Y/Y% | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 3.83 | 3.88 | 3.85 | 9.0 | 3.52 | 2.78 | 2.35 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 94.33 | 97.61 | 95.65 | 12.6 | 95.14 | 79.51 | 61.39 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) | 2.75 | 2.86 | 2.83 | -27.0 | 3.99 | 4.40 | 3.95 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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