Global| Jan 06 2015U.S. Factory Sector Orders Remain Depressed; Order Backlogs Gain
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders to all manufacturers fell 0.7% (-1.0% y/y) during November following an unrevised 0.7% easing in October. The decline was the fourth consecutive drop and roughly matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]
New orders to all manufacturers fell 0.7% (-1.0% y/y) during November following an unrevised 0.7% easing in October. The decline was the fourth consecutive drop and roughly matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The report included slight revisions to the advance durable goods report. Durable goods orders declined 0.9% and were unchanged y/y. Computers & electronic equipment orders fell 1.7% (-1.7% y/y) and transportation equipment bookings were off 1.3% (-6.6% y/y). Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) declined 0.5% (-2.0% y/y) as the value of petroleum shipments fell 0.8% (-12.1% y/y) due to lower prices. Paper products shipments also declined 0.8% (+1.0% y/y) but chemical shipments improved 0.1% (-2.1% y/y). Also to the upside, apparel shipments rose 1.3% (14.1% y/y). Durable goods shipments fell 0.6% (+2.5% y/y) led by a 1.3% decline (-0.7% y/y) in transportation equipment shipments. To the upside were electrical equipment & appliance shipments by 1.4% (3.0% y/y).
Unfilled orders increased 0.4% (11.6% y/y) while backlogs excluding the transportation sector improved 0.3% (6.6% y/y). Electrical equipment backlogs edged 0.2% higher (15.0% y/y) and unfilled orders of computers & electronic products gained 0.5% (6.2% y/y). Unfilled orders of furniture improved 0.7% (11.2% y/y) but machinery backlogs slipped 0.2% (+9.8% y/y), the third straight month of slight decline.
Inventories in the factory sector ticked 0.1% higher (3.6% y/y) as they did in October. In the durable goods sector, inventories rose 0.4% (6.2% y/y) driven by a 1.3% gain (-1.9% y/y) in electrical equipment inventories. Transportation equipment inventories gained 0.9% (10.2% y/y) and primary metals inventories rose 0.8% (8.8% y/y). Amongst nondurable goods industries, inventories declined 0.4% (-0.5% y/y). The value of petroleum inventories dropped 3.3% (-10.9% y/y) and food products inventories were off 0.2% (+0.3% y/y). Apparel inventories jumped 3.3% (28.3% y/y) and basic chemicals edged 0.2% higher (1.2% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Factory Sector- NAICS Classification (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -1.0 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 12.9 |
| Shipments | -0.6 | -0.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 12.1 |
| Inventories | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 10.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 10.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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