Global| Jul 05 2016U.S. Factory Orders Backpedal in May
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders to manufacturers declined 1.0% (-0.2% y/y) during May following a little-revised 1.8% April gain. A 0.9% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Durable goods orders fell 2.3%, which was roughly [...]
New orders to manufacturers declined 1.0% (-0.2% y/y) during May following a little-revised 1.8% April gain. A 0.9% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Durable goods orders fell 2.3%, which was roughly the same as in the advance report, and paced by a sharp drop in transportation sector bookings.
Nondurable goods orders, which equal shipments, improved 0.3% (-4.6% y/y) led by a steady 2.4% increase (-30.7% y/y) in petroleum refinery shipments. Apparel shipments jumped 1.9% (13.6% y/y), but basic chemical shipments were off 0.5% (+3.9% y/y). Durable goods shipments eased 0.2% (+0.2% y/y) led lower by fewer motor vehicle shipments.
Unfilled orders gained 0.2% (-0.9% y/y) as durable goods backlogs increased 0.2% (-0.9% y/y), which was only the second gain this year. The rise was led by a 0.7% increase (5.9% y/y) in computers & electronic products, but electrical equipment backlogs eased 0.3% (+2.5% y/y).
Inventories of manufactured products fell 0.1%, and have been declining steadily since late in 2014. Transportation equipment inventories fell 0.3% (-0.2% y/y). Outside of the transportation sector, inventories eased 0.1% (-3.8% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories remained unchanged (-2.5% y/y). Inventories on nondurable goods improved 0.1% (-4.0% y/y), but there was a one-third y/y drop in the value of petroleum refinery inventories.
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is available in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector- NAICS Classification (%) | May | Apr | Mar | Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | -0.2 | -6.3 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Shipments | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -3.2 | -4.4 | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -0.9 | -2.4 | 8.8 | 5.8t |
| Inventories | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -3.1 | -2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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