Global| Mar 31 2006U.S. Factory Inventories Flew Off The Shelves
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Factory inventories dropped 0.4% last month. This first decline since August of last year followed 1.1% accumulation during January, that was twice the 0.5% gain initially estimated. Motor vehicle & parts inventories dropped 0.4% [...]
Factory inventories dropped 0.4% last month. This first decline since August of last year followed 1.1% accumulation during January, that was twice the 0.5% gain initially estimated.
Motor vehicle & parts inventories dropped 0.4% (-3.3% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline. Nondefense aircraft inventories also were off 1.5% (+2.2% y/y). Less transportation altogether factory inventories fell 0.2% (+3.4% y/y) after a 1.2% jump during January.
Primary metals inventories jumped 1.2% (2.9% y/y) but machinery inventories fell 0.1% (+5.2% y/y and electrical equipment fell 0.2% (+6.7% y/y). These latter two declines followed huge increases during January.
Total factory orders gained back 0.2% of January's 3.9% skid. Durable goods orders gained 2.7%, little revised from the advance report. Factory orders less the transportation sector altogether fell 2.0% (+6.2% y/y) and that wholly reversed the gain during January.
Factory shipments fell 1.1% and less transportation shipments fell an even greater 1.3% (7.2% y/y). The total was dragged down by an 11.8% (+19.7% y/y) drop in shipments of petroleum. Factory shipments less transportation and petroleum slipped 0.1% (+6.2% y/y) after a 1.1% surge during January.
Unfilled orders rose 0.9% but the 0.2% January decline was shallower than originally estimated. Less the transportation sector, backlogs rose 0.4% (10.0% y/y) and the 0.6% January increase was upwardly revised.
| Factory Survey (NAICS) | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | -0.4% | 1.1% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 7.7% | -1.1% |
| New Orders | 0.2% | -3.9% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 3.5% |
| Shipments | -1.1% | 0.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 1.5% |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.9% | -0.2% | 17.0% | 16.5% | 8.4% | 8.0% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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