Global| Jul 22 2013U.S. Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Slip as Inventories Drop; Prices Improve
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Existing home sales edged down 1.2% in June (+15.2% y/y) to 5.080 mil. units (AR), according to the National Association of Realtors. The May figure was revised down to 5.140 mil. from 5.180 mil. reported last month. Consensus [...]
Existing home sales edged down 1.2% in June (+15.2% y/y) to 5.080 mil. units (AR), according to the National Association of Realtors. The May figure was revised down to 5.140 mil. from 5.180 mil. reported last month. Consensus expectations had been for 5.260 mil. Sales of existing single-family homes alone fell 1.1% to 4.500 mil. (+14.5% y/y. These data have a longer history than the total sales series.) Sales of condos and co-ops decreased 1.7% m/m to 0.580M (+20.8% y/y).
Sales slipped across the nation by roughly equal amounts. In the Northeast sales fell 1.6% to .630 mil. (+16.7% y/y). Sales declined 1.6% in the West to 1.210 mil. (11.0 y/y while sales in the South were off 1.5% to 2.030 mil. (+16.0 y/y). Sales in the Midwest were unchanged at 1.210 mil. (17.5% y/y).
Potentially holding back sales was the diminished supply of homes on the market. It edged up last month to 5.1 months of sales but that remained down from a high of 11.9 months in July of 2010. The actual number of homes on the market fell 7.6% y/y last month and added to a 21.1% decline during all of last year and a 23.2% drop in 2011.
The median price of an existing home jumped another 5.5% in June to $214,200 (13.5% y/y). This was the highest price reading since June 2008. The peak was $230,300 in July 2006.
Reported earlier this month, the May composite index of home price affordability dropped 6.3% (-8.3% y/y) to its lowest level since August 2010. The decline was due to the 5.5% price increase (13.2% y/y). The average mortgage rate slipped m/m to 3.57% but was up from the 3.43% December low.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
| Existing Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Jun | May | Apr | Y/Y % | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
| Total | 5,080 | 5,140 | 4,970 | 15.2 | 4,661 | 4,278 | 4,183 |
| Northeast | 630 | 640 | 640 | 16.7 | 596 | 543 | 563 |
| Midwest | 1,210 | 1,210 | 1,120 | 17.5 | 1067 | 918 | 909 |
| South | 2,030 | 2,060 | 2,010 | 16.0 | 1,833 | 1,683 | 1,626 |
| West | 1,210 | 1,230 | 1,200 | 11.0 | 1,165 | 1,133 | 1,084 |
| Single-Family Sales | 4,500 | 4,500 | 4,380 | 14.5 | 4,130 | 3,793 | 3,705 |
| Median Price Total ($, NSA) | 214,200 | 203,100 | 191,800 | 13.5 | 175,442 | 164,542 | 172,442 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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