Global| Jan 23 2014U.S. Existing Home Sales Inch Higher M/M But Surge Y/Y
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Sales of existing single-family homes in December improved a modest 1.0% (-0.6% y/y) to 4.870 million (AR) versus a downwardly revised 4.820 million in November. Sales remained 9.6% lower versus the August high and fell short of 4.930 [...]
Sales of existing single-family homes in December improved a modest 1.0% (-0.6% y/y) to 4.870 million (AR) versus a downwardly revised 4.820 million in November. Sales remained 9.6% lower versus the August high and fell short of 4.930 million expected in the Action Economics survey. Nevertheless, sales for all of last year increased 8.9% versus 2012 to 5.073 million. The rise repeated 2012's gain and was the highest level since 2006. Sales of existing single family homes improved 1.9% last month to 4.300 million (-0.7% y/y). For all of last year sales rose 8.2% to 4.470 million.
The median sales price of an existing single-family home recovered to $198,000 (9.9% y/y) last month following five consecutive months of decline. Prices have fallen 7.5% since the June peak. For all of 2013, strong price gains early in the year lifted the average price 11.5% above 2012 following that year's 6.6% increase. Prices nevertheless remained 11.9% below the 2006 peak.
The composite index of home affordability fell 16.1% y/y in November as mortgage rates rose to 4.38% from 3.50% twelve months earlier. Mortgage payments as a percent of income slipped m/m but at 14.7% were up versus 12.3% twelve months earlier.
The inventory of unsold homes fell during the last five months but remained up 1.6% y/y. The months' supply of unsold homes fell m/m to 4.6. That was nearly the lowest level of the cycle and compares to an 11.9 month supply in July of 2010.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
| Existing Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 4,870 | 4,820 | 5,120 | -0.6 | 5,073 | 4,661 | 4,278 |
| Northeast | 640 | 650 | 670 | 3.2 | 658 | 596 | 543 |
| Midwest | 1,110 | 1,160 | 1,220 | -0.9 | 1,194 | 1,067 | 918 |
| South | 2,030 | 1,970 | 2,060 | 4.6 | 2,033 | 1,833 | 1,683 |
| West | 1,090 | 1,040 | 1,170 | -10.7 | 1,189 | 1,165 | 1,133 |
| Single-Family Sales | 4,300 | 4,220 | 4,490 | -0.7 | 4,470 | 4,130 | 3,793 |
| Median Price Total ($, NSA) | 198,000 | 195,500 | 197,500 | 9.9 | 195,683 | 175,442 | 164,542 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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