U.S. Energy Prices Are Little Changed

The pump price for a gallon of gasoline has been fairly steady near $2.83 per gallon since the end of June. Nevertheless, prices remained up 17.8% y/y. Haver Analytics constructs factors to adjust for the marked seasonal variation in prices. The seasonally-adjusted gasoline price also has been roughly steady at $2.76 per gallon, but remained up versus $2.60 late last year.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices improved to $67.63 per barrel last week (41.8% y/y) from $66.13 in the previous week. WTI prices remained lower than the $73.71 peak early in July. Yesterday, the price rose to $68.87. Brent crude oil prices strengthened to $73.77 per barrel last week (41.6% y/y) from $71.85 during the prior week. The price was $76.16 yesterday.

Natural gas prices were steady last week at $2.98/mmbtu (0.7% y/y), the highest level since early-February. They were $2.95 yesterday.

In the four-weeks ending August 17, gasoline demand fell 1.6% y/y; total petroleum product demand declined 1.1% y/y. Gasoline inventories increased 1.9% y/y, but inventories of all petroleum products fell 5.0% y/y. Crude oil input to refineries rose 1.3% y/y in the last four weeks.

These data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY and DAILY databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data, along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.

Consumer confidence improved this month to its firmest level since October 2000. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index during August jumped 4.3% (10.8% y/y) to 133.4 from 127.9 in July, initially reported as 127.4. The August level exceeded expectations for 127.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The level of confidence had been moving sideways since November until this latest rise. The indexes in this report are based on 1985=100. During the past 10 years, there has been a 68% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real PCE.

The present conditions component increased 3.7% (16.0% y/y) to 172.2, its highest level since December 2000. The expectations component gained 5.1% (5.8% y/) to 101.7, the lowest level since December.

Expectations for business conditions improved m/m as 23.1% of respondents thought that conditions would improve, still down from a 26.9% high in March 2017. Income was expected to increase in six months by a still sharply lessened 20.8%, versus the February high of 23.5%. Expectations that there would be more jobs in six months surged m/m to 22.5%, the highest level since early last year.

Jobs were viewed as "plentiful" by an increased 43.1% of respondents in July. Jobs were viewed as "hard to get" by a steady and low 15.0%, the fewest in seventeen years. The net jobs assessment reading increased to +28.1 in July. It remained near the highest level since 2001. Over the past 15 years, this differential has been 96% inversely related to the unemployment rate. The percentage of respondents indicating the business conditions are "good" rose to a 17-year high of 38.0%. The percentage saying business conditions are "bad" declined to a cycle low 10.1%.

Expectations for the inflation rate in twelve months rose m/m to 5.1%, up from last November's 4.5% low. It was the highest reading since October 2015. The percentage expecting higher interest rates over the next twelve months held fairly steady at 71.1%, but was up sharply from 67.6% in May of last year. Those looking to buy a home in the next six months fell sharply m/m to 5.1%, the lowest level in two years.

Confidence amongst respondents under age 35 years improved sharply to the highest level since May of last year. For those aged 35-54 years, confidence declined m/m to nearly a one year low. And for those over 55 years of age, confidence has been fairly steady this year near the eighteen-year high.

The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.