Global| Oct 27 2004U.S. Durable Goods Orders Turn Up, Helped by Machinery & Computers
Summary
September durable goods orders continued to be pushed around by the aircraft sector. Orders in that volatile industry fell back for a second month after their spike in June and July. Total durable goods orders turned up 0.2% following [...]
September durable goods orders continued to be pushed around by the aircraft sector. Orders in that volatile industry fell back for a second month after their spike in June and July. Total durable goods orders turned up 0.2% following August's 0.6% fall; machinery and high tech equipment were mainly responsible for the advance.
Nondefense capital goods orders managed a 0.6% increase in September. Excluding the decline in commercial aircraft, they were up a notable 2.6%. This was the fourth consecutive monthly gain in that segment and extended a generally rising trend that began early in 2003.
Shipments, after a good gain of 1.9% in August, dropped back 1.2% last month. The distribution was mixed among industries and categories. With the decline in shipments, the backlog of unfilled orders rose 0.7%. A simple ratio of the backlog to shipments in industries that have unfilled orders stands at almost 4.0 months. This is not high by recent standards, but indicates a stabilization after a two-and-a-half year downtrend.
Inventories of durable goods rose 0.3% (6.3% y/y) moderating further after July's 1.1% spike and August's sizable 0.8% rise.
| NAICS Classification | Sept | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders | 0.2% | -0.6% | 1.9% | 9.3% | 3.0% | -1.9% | -10.6% |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 0.6% | -7.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.4% | -7.4% | -15.8% |
| Excluding Aircraft | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 7.5% | 2.8% | -6.4% | -10.5% |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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