Global| Apr 24 2015U.S. Durable Goods Orders Soar With Aircraft Bookings; Orders Weaken Elsewhere
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods jumped 4.0% during March (0.7% y/y) following an unrevised 1.4% February decline. Leading the increase were orders for defense aircraft which roughly doubled m/m (26.5% y/y). Nondefense aircraft orders [...]
New orders for durable goods jumped 4.0% during March (0.7% y/y) following an unrevised 1.4% February decline. Leading the increase were orders for defense aircraft which roughly doubled m/m (26.5% y/y). Nondefense aircraft orders also were strong, posting a 30.6% gain (-3.2% y/y). Total durable goods orders were expected to rise 0.8% in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the y/y change in orders and the change in real GDP.
Outside of the transportation sector, new orders slipped 0.2% (-1.9% y/y), the sixth consecutive monthly shortfall which totals 5.5%. Machinery orders declined 1.5% (-11.6% y/y), down 12.8% since a June peak. Orders for electrical equipment & appliances fell 1.1% (-1.7% y/y) and were 7.6% below June's high. Orders for both fabricated & primary metals fell modestly m/m and have been trending lower. Offsetting these declines was a 3.0% increase in orders for computers & electronic products though they were unchanged y/y. Orders for motor vehicles & parts have been notably strong. They jumped 5.4% last month (10.0% y/y) to an all-time high.
Nondefense capital goods orders recovered 3.5% (-3.4% y/y) following a 2.2% decline. Orders excluding the notably volatile aircraft sector, however, slipped 0.5% (-4.0% y/y) and were 6.7% below the August peak.
Shipments of durable goods improved 1.1% (3.7% y/y) following a 0.2% slip. Shipments excluding transportation edged 0.3% higher (0.5% y/y) after a 0.5% drop. Unfilled orders were unchanged (+8.0% y/y) following declines in the three prior months. Backlogs less the transportation sector fell 0.5% (+3.8% y/y), down for the fourth straight month. Inventories of durable goods ticked 0.1% higher (5.1% y/y), the weakest of the last three monthly gains, and excluding transportation they also rose 0.1% (4.0% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | 4.0 | -1.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 4.1 |
| Transportation | 13.5 | -1.8 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 8.9 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.2 | -1.3 | -0.9 | -1.9 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 3.5 | -2.2 | 8.5 | -3.4 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 3.7 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | -4.0 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.1 |
| Shipments | 1.1 | -0.2 | -1.4 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 6.4 |
| Inventories | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 4.5 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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