Global| Sep 25 2014U.S. Durable Goods Orders Retreat With Fewer Aircraft Bookings
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods fell back 18.2% during August (+8.9% y/y) following a 22.5% July surge, revised from 22.6%. The shortfall roughly matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders were pulled lower by a [...]
New orders for durable goods fell back 18.2% during August (+8.9% y/y) following a 22.5% July surge, revised from 22.6%. The shortfall roughly matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders were pulled lower by a 74.3% falloff (+46.7% y/y) in bookings for nondefense aircraft & parts which surged 315.6% in July. The decline pulled overall transportation sector orders down 42.0% (+12.6% y/y), without which durable orders would have rebounded 0.7% (7.3% y/y) from a 0.5% dip.
In most other sectors new orders firmed. Electrical equipment orders improved 3.1% (7.1% y/y) following a 2.7% decline. Orders for computers & electronic products rose 1.7% (11.0% y/y) after a 0.8% drop. This gain contained an 8.4% decline (+0.4% y/y) in orders for computers & related products and a 3.5% rise (8.1% y/y) in communication equipment bookings. Primary metal orders fell 0.7% (+9.1% y/y) after a 0.1% slip and orders for machinery improved 0.7% (7.6% y/y) following a 1.6% fall.
Shipments of durable goods declined 1.5% (+6.4% y/y) following a 3.7% increase. Shipments excluding transportation ticked 0.1% higher (7.1% y/y) after a 1.9% jump. Order backlogs gained 0.6% (12.8% y/y) following a 5.3% increase. Inventory building continued with a 0.4% (6.3% y/y) rise for the third consecutive month.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Aug | Jul | Jun | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | -18.2 | 22.5 | 2.7 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 11.0 |
| Transportation | -42.0 | 73.3 | 2.2 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 14.9 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.7 | -0.5 | 3.0 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 9.5 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -36.3 | 60.8 | 5.1 | 13.7 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 15.3 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 0.6 | -0.2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 11.6 |
| Shipments | -1.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 9.4 |
| Inventories | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 10.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.6 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 10.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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