Global| Apr 26 2016U.S. Durable Goods Orders Improve; Bookings for Capital Goods Ease
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods increased 0.8% during March (-2.5% y/y) following a 3.1% February decline, revised from -2.8%. A 1.9% improvement had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 2.9% rebound (-4.8% y/y) in [...]
New orders for durable goods increased 0.8% during March (-2.5% y/y) following a 3.1% February decline, revised from -2.8%. A 1.9% improvement had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
A 2.9% rebound (-4.8% y/y) in orders for transportation equipment led the overall increase. It was paced by a 13.2% recovery (-28.2% y/y) in aircraft orders which followed a 27.7% decline. Motor vehicle & parts bookings declined 3.0% (+3.1% y/y) after a 0.5% rise.
Orders for nondefense capital goods declined 1.1% (-11.6% y/y) following an 8.0% drop. Bookings excluding aircraft were little changed (-2.4% y/y) after a 2.7% shortfall.
Machinery orders improved 0.5% (-0.2% y/y) following a 3.5% slump. Computers & electronic product bookings were off 0.6% (-1.6% y/y) after a 0.9% fall. Electrical equipment orders fell another 3.0% (-10.9% y/y), down for a second consecutive month. Fabricated metals orders declined 1.6% (+0.4% y/y), but primary metals orders improved 0.8% (-9.0% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods slipped 0.5% (-1.5% y/y) following a 1.0% decline. Shipments excluding transportation edged 0.2% higher (-2.0% y/y). Order backlogs of durable goods eased 0.1% (-1.7% y/y) and less transportation, they gained 0.1% (-0.9% y/y). Durable goods inventories remained steady (-1.7% y/y), and excluding transportation, they were up 0.1% (-3.0% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | 0.8 | -3.1 | 4.3 | -2.5 | -3.3 | 6.8 | 2.2 |
| Transportation | 2.9 | -6.7 | 10.6 | -4.8 | -4.8 | 6.1 | 6.5 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.2 | -1.3 | 1.4 | -1.4 | -2.5 | 7.2 | 0.1 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -1.1 | -8.0 | 20.7 | -11.6 | -10.2 | 6.6 | 2.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.0 | -2.7 | 3.3 | -2.4 | -3.7 | 6.3 | -1.0 |
| Shipments | -0.5 | -1.0 | 1.4 | -1.5 | 1.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 |
| Inventories | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -1.7 | -0.4 | 6.1 | 2.4 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.1 | -0.4 | 0.1 | -1.7 | -1.9 | 11.4 | 6.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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