Global| Jul 27 2016U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline Is Led by Aircraft
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods fell 4.0% during June (-6.4% y/y) following a 2.8% May decline, revised from -2.2%. A 1.0% shortfall had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. For a second straight month, weakness in the [...]
New orders for durable goods fell 4.0% during June (-6.4% y/y) following a 2.8% May decline, revised from -2.2%. A 1.0% shortfall had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
For a second straight month, weakness in the transportation sector led total orders lower. A 10.5% decline (-11.6% y/y) followed a 7.1% drop. Orders for civilian aircraft & parts plunged 58.8%, off by more than one half y/y, following a 5.5% decline. Defense aircraft orders were off 7.4% (-28.9% y/y) following a 9.0% drop. Working the other way, motor vehicle & parts orders improved 2.6% (2.5% y/y) after a 3.1% decline.
Outside of the transportation sector altogether, orders for durable goods eased 0.5% (-3.6% y/y) following a 0.4% decline. Primary metal orders declined 1.3% (-10.5% y/y), the same as they did in May. Fabricated metal orders eased 0.3% (-0.6% y/y). Machinery bookings slipped 0.1% (-7.2% y/y), but electrical equipment orders improved 0.8% (-5.7% y/y). Orders for computers & electronic products declined 2.2% (+0.3% y/y) as computer & related products orders fell 9.1% (-28.0% y/y). Orders for communications equipment were off 2.3% (-2.9% y/y).
Orders for nondefense capital goods fell 11.3% (-15.7% y/y) following a 1.6% decline. Excluding aircraft, nondefense capital goods orders improved 0.2% (-3.7% y/y following two consecutive monthly declines.
Shipments of durable goods rose 0.4% (-2.0% y/y), but excluding transportation they were off 0.2% (-3.2 % y/y) for second straight month. Unfilled durable goods orders declined 0.9% (-1.9% y/y) and excluding transportation they eased 0.2% (-0.3% y/y), following two months of stability. Inventories of durable goods declined 0.2% (-3.5% y/y), while outside of the transportation sector inventories gained 0.2% (-4.1% y/y), the first rise in a year.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | -4.0 | -2.8 | 3.2 | -6.4 | -2.9 | 4.8 | 2.8 |
| Transportation | -10.5 | -7.1 | 8.5 | -11.6 | -4.0 | 6.8 | 8.8 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.5 | -0.4 | 0.3 | -3.6 | -2.3 | 3.8 | -0.1 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -11.3 | -1.6 | 8.3 | -15.7 | -9.6 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 0.2 | -0.5 | -0.9 | -3.7 | -3.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Shipments | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.4 | -2.0 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.9 | 0.0 | 0.6 | -1.9 | -2.4 | 8.6 | 5.7 |
| Inventories | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -3.5 | -0.6 | 5.2 | 1.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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