Global| Sep 01 2015U.S. Crude Oil Prices Surge; Gasoline Prices Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Crude oil prices found new life last week. Following weakness through Wednesday which left WTI crude oil costs at $38.60 per barrel, prices surged on news of weakened production and speculation of more cutbacks to come. For the week, [...]
Crude oil prices found new life last week. Following weakness through Wednesday which left WTI crude oil costs at $38.60 per barrel, prices surged on news of weakened production and speculation of more cutbacks to come. For the week, prices averaged a new low of $40.75 per barrel (-57.7% y/y), down from $107.23 in May 2014. As of yesterday, however, prices surged to $49.20 per barrel, the highest level since July. These prices compare to a June 2014 high of $107.95. The seasonally adjusted price, generated by Haver Analytics, declined last week to $38.41 per barrel. Brent crude oil prices declined w/w to $45.34 per barrel but were $53.04 yesterday.
Gasoline prices at the pump continued to fall and averaged $2.51 per gallon (-27.4% y/y) last week. That was down 7 cents from a week earlier and below $2.84 in mid-June. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in pump prices. The seasonally adjusted price fell 14 cents w/w to $2.39 per gallon. Spot market gasoline prices fell w/w to $1.48 per gallon (-46.4% y/y).
Natural gas prices eased again last week to $2.68 per mmbtu (-32.6% y/y) and were $2.68 yesterday.
Gasoline demand rose 5.8% y/y last week while demand for all petroleum products rose 2.4% y/y. Gasoline inventories improved 1.0% y/y and inventories of all petroleum products increased 9.1% y/y. Crude oil production (input to refineries) grew 3.0% y/y during the last four weeks.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The petroleum demand and inventory figures are from the Oil & Gas Journal Weekly. These data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and greater detail on prices, demand and production, along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.
Inflation Expectations Surveys Often Miss the Mark from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas can be found here.
| Weekly Energy Prices | 08/31/15 | 08/24/15 | 08/17/15 | Y/Y% | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 2.51 | 2.64 | 2.72 | -27.4 | 2.30 | 3.33 | 3.30 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl., WSJ) | 40.75 | 41.34 | 43.20 | -57.7 | 93.64 | 97.96 | 94.20 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, WSJ) | 2.68 | 2.72 | 2.87 | -32.6 | 4.37 | 3.73 | 2.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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