Global| Feb 23 2011U.S. Crude Oil Costs Spike: "It's the Libyans"
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
That was the cry in the 1985 hit movie "Back to the Future." Today, it's no joke. Now the risk that political turmoil in the country will involve others in the region has oil markets concerned about supply. As a result, crude oil [...]
That was the cry in the 1985 hit movie "Back to the Future." Today, it's no joke. Now the risk that political turmoil in the country will involve others in the region has oil markets concerned about supply. As a result, crude oil prices spiked yesterday to $93.57 per barrel of light sweet crude (WTI). The price compares to an average $79.51 during all of last year. Brent crude surged as well to $106.00.
Gasoline prices have followed the gain in crude costs. The pump price for regular gasoline last week rose five cents to $3.19 per gallon, its highest since October 2008. The latest was roughly double the December-2008 low of $1.61. Typically, pump prices decline this time of year due to lessened seasonal demand. To account for this pattern, Haver Analytics calculates seasonal factors and the adjusted gasoline price moved higher to $3.38 per gallon. Yesterday, the spot market price for a gallon of regular gasoline jumped to $2.58 from an average $2.51 last week.
Demand for gasoline slipped 0.1% last week versus last year. The demand for residual fuel oil, used for heating, increased 0.2% and distillate demand rose 2.7% y/y. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products rose a greatly lessened 1.4% during the last twelve months, down from a peak 11% in September 2009.
Lastly, natural gas prices fell to an average of $3.89 per mmbtu. Yesterday, prices held at $3.89 and were down from last year's early-January high of $6.50.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY
| Weekly Price | 2/21/11 | 2/14/11 | 2/7/11 | Y/Y% | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 3.19 | 3.14 | 3.13 | 20.1 | 2.78 | 2.35 | 3.25 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 85.34 | 86.69 | 90.68 | 9.0 | 79.51 | 61.39 | 100.16 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) | 3.89 | 4.16 | 4.52 | -28.1 | 4.40 | 3.95 | 8.88 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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